Marvin Ott poses a provocative question in his recent article, “The price of strategic folly,” Despite the difficulties that attended its birth, could Pakistan have become a prosperous and secular democracy? That question has occupied historians for decades. A consensus has yet to emerge.
Amazingly, back in April 1946 when the Cabinet Mission was holding deliberations in India, Maulana Azad was asked a similar question by Shorish Kashmiri. [https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/maulana-azads-interview-given-to-shorish-kashmiri-1946.89064/
Maulana Azad conceded Mr Jinnah’s views were going to prevail and Pakistan would soon be a reality. But the Maulana predicted it would turn into a very different country from what its founder had envisaged.
He began the interview by reiterating his objections to the Two-Nation Theory. He agreed that there was a Hindu-Muslim conflict in the Subcontinent. But he did not agree with Mr. Jinnah that it would be resolved by dividing India. He said there was no scholarly basis among Muslims for saying that the dominion of God should be divided on the basis of religion.
Islam was a universal system of life for all mankind, not just for the Muslims. Muslims were present in large numbers in non-Muslim lands. They were not asking for a Pakistan to be created for them in every land where they lived as a permanent minority.
Forced to reach out to western countries for assistance, Pakistan would accept foreign aid with strings attached. In the end, Pakistan would be forced to make ideological and territorial compromises and end up bearing no resemblance to Jinnah’s construct
Even then, the learned scholar of Islam conceded that the Muslims of British India were unwilling to hear any objections to the idea of Pakistan. But he warned that the partition on the basis of religion would haunt not only the Muslims living in India, who would become an even smaller minority in their land, but it would also haunt the Muslims living in Pakistan where they would be an absolute majority.
“We must remember that an entity conceived in hatred will last only as long as that hatred lasts. This hatred will overwhelm the relations between India and Pakistan. In this situation it will not be possible for India and Pakistan to become friends and live amicably unless some catastrophic event takes place. The politics of partition itself will act as a barrier between the two countries. It will not be possible for Pakistan to accommodate all the Muslims of India, a task beyond her territorial capability. On the other hand, it will not be possible for the Hindus to stay especially in West Pakistan. They will be thrown out or leave on their own. This will have its repercussions in India.”
Thus, Indian Muslims would have to pick one of three options:
First, migrate to Pakistan. But not everyone would be able to do so or want to do so. And those who did succeed in migrating, he warned, may be spurned, not welcomed, by the natives.
Second, stay behind in India and be subjected to abuse, humiliation, taunts, torture and murder.
Third, renounce Islam. He said this was likely to be the case of those who were afflicted with poverty. They would find themselves in a “political wilderness” and simply change their faith.
The Maulana said, “The prominent Muslims who are supporters of Muslim League will leave for Pakistan. The wealthy Muslims will take over the industry and business and monopolize the economy of Pakistan. But more than 30 million Muslims will be left behind in India. What promise Pakistan holds for them?” He said their situation will become dangerous when people living in India see Hindus and Sikhs being expelled from Pakistan.
And then he turned to East Pakistan. He said that Bengalis disdained outside leadership and were going to reject it sooner or later. “During World War II, Mr Fazlul Haq revolted against Jinnah and was thrown out of the Muslim League. Mr H.S. Suhrawardy does not hold Jinnah in high esteem.”
As long as Jinnah and Liaquat were alive, he felt that East Pakistanis would remain loyal to the idea of Pakistan. But once they had passed, even a small incident would create resentment and disaffection.
He felt it would not be possible for East Pakistan to stay with West Pakistan for any considerable period of time. And he summed up his thesis by saying that there was nothing in common between the two wings of Pakistan except that the inhabitants were called themselves Muslims.
“On the other hand, the language, customs and way of life of East Pakistan are totally different from West Pakistan. The moment the creative warmth of Pakistan cools down, the contradictions will emerge and will acquire assertive overtones. These will be fuelled by the clash of interests of international powers and consequently both wings will separate. After the separation of East Pakistan, whenever it happens, West Pakistan will become the battleground of regional contradictions and disputes.”
Then he went on to list eight reasons why Pakistan would face some very serious problems from its inception.
First, the politicians who would come after Jinnah and Liaquat would be of very low caliber. They would bungle the authority given to them and that would pave the way for a military dictatorship. He stated this problem had plagued many Muslim countries. Second, the economy would find itself burdened with foreign debt. Third, the country would not be able to establish friendly ties with its neighbors and possibly get into armed conflicts with them. Fourth, it would face internal unrest and regional conflicts. Fifth, the newly rich industrialists would loot the wealth of the nation.
Sixth, a class war between the poor and the rich would break out. Seventh, the youth would become alienated and walk away from religion, thereby undermining the basis of Pakistan.
And, eighth, Pakistan would become a pawn among the great powers.
These eight factors would threaten the stability of Pakistan. And despite being the largest Muslim state in the world, the other Muslim countries would not be able to provide it any substantial help. Their help would be confined to moral support and lip service.
Forced to reach out to western countries for assistance, Pakistan would accept foreign aid with strings attached. In the end, Pakistan would be forced to make ideological and territorial compromises and end up bearing no resemblance to Jinnah’s construct.
History has shown that the Maulana was amazingly prescient. In varying degrees, all of his prognostications came to pass, except perhaps for the seventh. The youth have become even more indoctrinated in religion.
But what has past is past. One has to be forward looking. The focus should be on recreating Jinnah’s Pakistan. Imran Khan has been a golden opportunity to do just that. Will he deliver?
The writer can be reached at [email protected]