ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has limited options to respond after US President Donald Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on any country doing business with Iran, analysts say. The move, issued via social media and effective immediately, marks a sharp escalation in Washington’s economic pressure campaign against Tehran.
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The tariff targets third countries, not Iran itself, forcing them to weigh economic engagement with Tehran against access to the US market. Pakistan’s bilateral trade with Iran, estimated at around $3 billion annually, has grown steadily and is often conducted through barter or local currency arrangements, reflecting both sanctions constraints and dollar shortages.
The blanket tariff could affect Pakistan’s key exports to the US while reducing trade with Iran would have implications for energy supply, border economies, and regional connectivity. With exemptions unlikely, Islamabad must either further informalise trade with Iran or scale back engagement — neither option free of economic consequences.
Experts say the announcement is part of Trump’s “maximum pressure” doctrine, first deployed after the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. Unlike traditional sanctions, the measure applies broadly, potentially penalising countries for any form of trade, investment, services, or financial interaction with Iran, including barter or local currency transactions.
Critical details remain unclear, including whether humanitarian trade, legacy contracts, or indirect transactions would be exempt. The broad definition of “doing business” and the tariff’s application to US-bound exports creates uncertainty, leaving countries with little clarity on compliance.
Pakistan appears to have adopted a cautious approach, with officials observing developments before taking a public stance. “Why should we stick out our neck?” a senior official reportedly said, reflecting the sensitivity of navigating competing pressures from Tehran and Washington.
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Analysts warn that while the move aims to squeeze Iran economically, its spillover effects could reverberate across regional trade, energy security, and Pakistan’s fragile economy.