OSLO – The world will soon learn the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, but experts say it’s highly unlikely that US President Donald Trump will hear his name called when the announcement is made at 11 a.m. (0900 GMT) in Oslo.
Despite a months-long campaign to join the ranks of past US presidents and laureates Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, Woodrow Wilson, and Theodore Roosevelt, Trump faces long odds due to his foreign policy record and timing of recent events.
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Trump’s announcement of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal on Wednesday drew global attention. However, Norwegian daily VG reported that the Nobel Committee finalized its decision Monday, before the deal was made public. Analysts say even if the committee had known, it’s improbable that such a last-minute political achievement would sway their decision in time.
Trump’s critics and Nobel historians have noted that his withdrawal from global accords—including the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization—and his trade confrontations with allies run contrary to the international cooperation and disarmament principles outlined in Alfred Nobel’s 1895 will. “If you look at Alfred Nobel’s will, it emphasizes three areas: peace-brokering, disarmament, and international cooperation,” said Nina Graeger, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. Historian Asle Sveen added that Trump’s admiration for authoritarian leaders also “goes against Alfred Nobel’s will.”
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Observers suggest this year’s Peace Prize could go to Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a UN humanitarian body like UNICEF or UNHCR, or aid organizations such as Doctors Without Borders. Another strong possibility is a collective award for journalists, as more reporters were killed in 2024 than any year on record, most of them covering the Gaza conflict. Groups such as the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) or Reporters Without Borders (RSF) have been mentioned as contenders.
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The five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee works in strict confidentiality, debating candidates over the course of a year. Nominations close January 31, with deliberations continuing through the summer before a final decision, usually by September. “All politicians want to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” said Joergen Watne Frydnes, the committee’s chair. “But we work the same way, regardless of pressure from any leader.”
As the clock ticks toward the announcement, one thing seems clear: while Trump’s pursuit of the Nobel spotlight has dominated headlines, the committee’s decision will likely reflect Nobel’s enduring ideals of peace, humanitarianism, and global cooperation—not political ambition.