On 20 Jan 2025, Donald Trump took the oath of office for his second term as the 47th President of the US, marking the beginning of a new chapter in his political career. Around the world, there is an ongoing debate on the policies he will pursue in his second term.
The most significant legacy left behind by Donald Trump in his first term was the establishment of the US Space Force (USSF) as the sixth branch of the US Armed Forces, along with the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. In 2019, President Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act, which officially led to the creation of the Space Force.
He was of the view that the US needed a dedicated military branch to defend its growing space infrastructure, including satellites and communication systems which are pivotal for military and civilian life. However, the creation of the Space Force faced domestic criticism, with some arguing that it merely duplicated functions already handled by existing military branches such as the Air Force and the National Reconnaissance Office. However, the other side saw it as a necessary step to counter the threats posed by adversaries.
Furthermore, alongside the creation of the US Space Force, the Trump administration also achieved another milestone in space exploration with the initiation of the Artemis Program to return humans to the Moon by 2025. In 2024, there were several significant developments globally, building on the momentum set by Trump during his first term. Under President Biden, Space Force has continued to grow with a focus on countering space threats from adversaries.
Space is no longer just a frontier for space exploration. Instead, it is now a contested arena for geopolitical influence and national security.
NASA has also made major strides, particularly with the Artemis program. Likewise, companies like Space X, Blur Origin, and Rocket Lab continued to drive the commercial space sector forward in 2024. Space X expanded its Starlink satellite constellation to provide global internet coverage. It is obvious that space is no longer just a frontier for space exploration, instead, it is now a contested arena for geopolitical influence and national security.
Thus, with growing interest in space exploration and defence, many are impatient to see how Trump’s administration will shape the future of this vital domain in the years ahead. Many are of the view that he will continue to prioritize space exploration and defense building on the legacy he established during his first term.
His second term could see continued support for NASA’s Artemis program, deeper collaboration with the private sector, and a stronger emphasis on the militarization of space, reflecting his commitment to ensuring that the US remains at the forefront of space innovation and security. Moreover, the Trump administration is expected to place a strong emphasis on defence, particularly in the areas of space and missile defence programs. As part of these efforts to strengthen national security, the US Space Force could receive increased funding to expand its capabilities and ensure that the US maintains a competitive edge in space-related defence technologies.
It has often been said that “people are the policies,” highlighting the significant impact individuals in key positions can have on shaping the direction of a government’s agenda. Trump is likely to push for an accelerated timeline for the Artemis program, to return Americans to the Moon ahead of China’s efforts to establish a presence there. Likewise, he has selected Jared Isaacman, a billionaire who has commanded two SpaceX commercial spaceflights, as his choice to be the next administrator of NASA.
Similarly, Elon Musk’s potential appointment to key advisory roles or his continued involvement in space policy during Trump’s second term could have a profound impact on the future of US space exploration and technology. His influence could also accelerate ambitious projects like lunar exploration, Mars missions, and the expansion of space infrastructure, solidifying the US’s position as a global leader in space. Moreover, Musk’s companies will soon benefit from a far friendlier regulatory environment that could provide Musk with greater flexibility and incentives to further push the boundaries of innovation across his ventures.
During the election campaign, Donald Trump declared to create a Space National Guard to ensure that America continues to strengthen its military defence in space. Hence, keeping in view Trump’s previous emphasis on military space initiatives, including the creation of the US Space Force, suggests that his administration will likely prioritize strengthening offensive capabilities in space, such as counter-ASAT technologies and space-based defence systems, to ensure that American assets remain secure and that the US maintains its strategic advantage in this rapidly evolving domain.
The recent shift in US policy on MTCR guidelines is aligned with Trump’s broader focus on space and national security. In July 2020, the US reinterpreted the MTCR guidelines to treat selected MTCR Category I UAS with maximum speeds less than 800 kilometres per hour as Category II in part to increase sales of these.
The policy change announced on 7 January 2025 also directs the interagency to provide increased flexibility for case-by-case review and facilitate support for certain MTCR Category I military missiles, UAS, and Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) systems to certain partners. Thus, the global framework designed to limit the proliferation of missile and weapons technology is now viewed as one that favours certain countries, like India, due to strategic alliances, rather than enforcing consistent standards across all nations. Outer space will likely witness significant developments, particularly in the military domain.
With a focus on maintaining American dominance and national security, the US could accelerate its space defence initiatives. This would result in increased militarization and weaponization of space. Initiatives like the Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) and the proposed Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT) by Russia and China have found themselves in a stalemate within the Conference on Disarmament (CD). Despite years of discussion, these proposals have struggled to gain traction, largely due to opposition from key space-faring nations, particularly the United States and its allies.
Outer space is a shared global resource, belonging to all and none, and no nation can claim ownership over it. However, the lack of a comprehensive legal framework to prevent the militarization and weaponization of space creates opportunities for countries to exploit these legal loopholes to advance their geopolitical, geo-economic, and geostrategic interests. Thus efforts must be made to have legally binding arrangements governing space put in place. As outer space becomes increasingly vital for national security, economic interests, and technological advancements, it is crucial to establish comprehensive international agreements that prevent the militarization and weaponization of space.
The writer is a Visiting Faculty at Fatima Jinnah Women’s University and a Visiting Senior Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad