The provisional results of national population census have brought back to life the catchphrases like a ‘ticking time bomb’ or ‘population explosion’. There is a widely-held belief that a relatively large population size and high population growth rate are major factors which hamper socio-economic development of Pakistan. This traditional neo-Malthusian perception is fuelled by the developed world and the international organisations which frequently tell the developing countries with relatively higher population that their fertility rates have caused the under development.
If a production technology suitable for countries with negative population growth is employed in countries with positive growth rates, the result will be rapid reduction in employment opportunities
Presently, 32.1 per cent of Pakistan’s population is below the age of 15 which is dependent on productive age adults. Such high number of dependents can result in low savings, low investment, slow economic growth and low socio-economic development. In neo-Malthusian perspective, population should match resources. In case of Pakistan, this perspective of looking at population as a major culprit of our development problems is popular. To some extent, this scenario looks irrefutable but it is not the whole truth.
Is Pakistan now overpopulated? It can be answered only if we know what is an optimum population level vis-à-vis resources. Do we know it? Probably no. A vague measure of population-resource balance is population density or number of people vis-à-vis available arable land. In terms of population density, several highly developed Western European countries are more densely populated even as compared to China, India and Pakistan. Contrary to the common perception, many developed countries have experienced high economic growth rates in tandem with high population growth rates in their recent economic history. For instance, Japan economically grew rapidly during the first half of 20th century despite a population growth rate of more than 3 per cent. If high population were a real obstacle to development, then it would be difficult to explain Chinese development during last three decades or recent Indian economic take off. Interestingly, sheer poverty of many of the sparsely populated African countries also defies the logic of overpopulation as a cause of underdevelopment.
In the recent past, scientific developments and technological advancement have helped humanity successfully defeat Malthusian doomsday. But this is a double-edged sword which cuts both ways. Today, modern automation technology and robotics pose new threats to developing countries having high human resource by rapidly rendering more and more people surplus from labour market. Highly automated production systems require less number of highly skilled labour while simultaneously drives out manifold low-skilled workers. This can potentially create an ‘overpopulation’ scenario even at zero population growth rate whereas Pakistan with 2.4 per cent of population growth rate will look overpopulated right now. If a production technology, which is suitable for countries with negative population growth, is employed in populated countries, the result would be rapid reduction in employment opportunities. In the cut throat competition of modern market economy, which is exacerbated by recent globalisation, the countries with abundant human resources have been compelled to gradually adopt highly automated production technology to cut costs of production in a desperate bid to remain competitive in the market. The result is gradual reduction in employment opportunities for the less-skilled. With shrinking employment opportunities, even a small population will present same development obstacles which are otherwise ascribed to a big population. This means the real problem is not just population size, but the way a global pursuit of profit maximisation shapes it.
In case of Pakistan, from policy perspective, it is important to integrate economic policy with population and re-distributive policies. It is also important to conduct a technology audit of economy. Labour intensive manufacturing and services should be encouraged to the maximum possible extent as long as competitiveness and efficiency are not compromised. A careful balance between technology and human resources is important. Pakistan presently spends 2.2 per cent of the GDP on educating the population. Persistently, such low-level of education spending has created a semi-skilled population which in this age of high technology is doomed to become surplus. The national education spending needs to be increased to 4 to 5 per cent of the GDP at the earliest. Within present fiscal space, this will be an arduous task but it remains the only option to turn population into an asset rather than liability. The Chinese example is enough to understand how social sector investment can turn a population of more than 1.25 billion into an economic locomotive.
Unless an elite consensus is developed in Pakistan to prioritise social sector development, the population problem will be highlighted only as a ruse to brush aside real policy shortcomings. The issues of economic policy, human resource development and role of technology need a national debate. There are provincial concerns regarding alleged under-reporting in national census. Throwing a smoke screen on the real issues related to population will do no good. It is better to bake a big cake to sate everyone rather than quarreling over a big share in a small cake.
Economic efficiency is vital for growth, but when the two options are efficiency and justice, justice should prevail. Pakistan should take the first step and draw the attention of developing world towards this collective challenge.
The writer works for the public sector and is a development policy analyst
Published in Daily Times, September 2nd 2017.