Selective use of populism is lethal for the overall unity, security and the joint progress of any society or humanity. Facts are registered in the history and history never forgives the leaders who prefer to compromise on their principles to get worldly benefits. Those who are courageous enough to take tough decisions by keeping the benefits of the entire humanity in mind are always remembered and celebrated by history.
On November 8, 2016, Indian PM Modi broke the surprising news to his nation and announced that the currency notes of ?500 and ?1000 would no longer be used, which was estimated approximately around 87pc — $220bn of its ‘cash-oriented economy’. The government estimated that around 30 per cent of the total cash pile, which exists in the system, consists of black money. The opposition parties, sensing the indignation of the people, vigorously criticised the move and hyped the demonetisation matter as a central issue and declared it as a referendum on PM Modi in the important regional elections, especially considering the BJP had lost the state elections in Delhi and Bihar in 2015 and Modi’s popularity was at the lowest ebb. But Modi, it seemed, had different political plans.
Modi’s populism worked and the BJP won the regional election convincingly. But after few months, it turned out as a major policy failure. Economy plummeted to 5.7 per cent from 7.9 per cent, and 99 per cent of the scrapped currency notes returned to the banks
Modi coined the ‘well-thought-out rhetoric’ and convinced the poor and the lower middle classes through his eloquent communication skills, on his so-called landmark decision. The poor and the lower middle classes felt a strong sense of ‘schadenfreude’, postulating their PM will force, corrupt elite to stand in the long queues and submitting bundles of black money. Modi’s populism worked and the BJP won the regional election convincingly. But after few months, it turned out as a major policy failure. Economy plummeted to 5.7 per cent from 7.9 per cent, and 99 per cent of the scrapped currency notes returned to the banks, which provided credence to the opposition’s claim that the government’s estimated figure on the black money was merely presumptive. Only history will judge, how much benefits or loses Modi’s selected-populist approach inflicted on India’s political, social and economic landscapes.
Donald Trump in the US, by exploiting the social anxieties of the rust belt population, executed his rhetoric against the ‘illegal-immigrants’, foreign businesses and security concerns. Trump continuously repeated his populism, which was full of fear and economic casualisation against the Mexicans, Chinese, and Muslims, which eventually secured him the highest public office of the country. Trump’s policies based on populism coupled with protectionism and strident nationalism have already damaged America’s global leadership status for which different previous US administrations have worked for decades and spent billions of dollars.
Just a few months after Trump’s election, many countries started looking eastwards toward China, and the president Xi Jinping is leaving no stones unturn to achieve that ready-made available position by sharing China’s prosperity in the regional and international economic projects with many countries of the world.
UK earns most of its revenue through its services sector and after the Brexit decision, scores of international financial and services institutions like JPM, HSBC, UBS, and AIG have already hinted at ending their operations in UK
In a referendum on 23 June 2016, 51.9 per cent of the participating UK voters decided to leave the European Union against 48.11 per cent. Nigel Farage, the former leader of the populist UK Independence Party, who termed Britain’s vote to exit the EU a ‘victory for genuine people,’ as if the 48.11 per cent of British people who voted to remain in the EU were from some other planet. UK earns most of its revenue through its services sector and after the Brexit decision, scores of international financial and services institutions like JPM, HSBC, UBS, and AIG have already hinted to quit their operations from UK.
Venezuela is also currently, facing the dire consequences of its socialist leader Hugo Chavez’s populist policies of 1998. He introduced the massive social programs for the poor by increasing the exports of oil, which is the only major source of earning of the country. In 2016, when the oil plummeted to $28, the government started to feel the heat of failed populist policies. Presently, it has left no economic ammunition to fund the massive social programs and to import basic items of food, resulting massive countrywide protests and anarchy in the country.
Pakistan has also witnessed many populist moments in its history which created havoc for its citizenry in the later stages to the present. From the nationalisation by ZA Bhutto in 1972, religious indoctrination of 1980 for the Afghan war, and to the unique Judicial populism of ex CJ Iftikhar Ahmed Chaudhry, who literally crippled the executive’s functioning and halted the privatisation process in the country. Iftikhar Chaudhry got retired but his wrong and excessive decisions based on populism are still haunting the economy and costing billions to the exchequer.
Another salient moment of populism popped up in 2013, when PML-N leader and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif announced that he has the most experienced team, which will fix the major problems of the country.
Above all, the ‘popular slogan’ was permanently fixing the country’s electric-shortfall and generate new sources of affordable energy. His popular rhetoric had won him the thumping majority in the parliament, but the promises he made with the people turned out to be merely an ‘election-winning strategy’. His government couldn’t deliver on the very first promise, let alone fixing the other mammoth problems. The economy is in the doldrums with record trade and fiscal deficits, and it seems the country is heading towards another IMF bailout package.
There are many lessons in Sharif’s failed populism to some major political leaders of Pakistan, especially Imran Khan, currently widely considered as the most popular leader in Pakistan. Imran Khan quite excessively uses the aggressive terms of populism for temporary political gains. His approach towards foreign affairs and the economy needs realistic deliberations, so, in case his party wins, he would manage to serve the country effectively.
The writer is an entrepreneur and can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, September 28th 2017.