The world is becoming warmer— there is significant evidence to this effect. There may not be universal consensus as to the extent, but this should not detract from established realties both on the ground and in research. In 2007, the United National Environmental Programme released a press statement citing climatic changes to be particularly “severe” in South Asia, including Pakistan, as the “glacial retreat will jeopardise the water supply for millions of people, changes to the annual monsoon will affect agriculture, and sea-level rise and cyclones will threaten human settlements”. Pakistan’s contribution to carbon dioxide emissions responsible for global warming is minuscule in global terms, yet Pakistan cannot evade the effects of global warming (leading to climate change). Parts of the country boast magnificent natural landscapes and host a varied wildlife with some indigenous species of plants and animals already facing extinction; it would be a travesty to lose this natural legacy. Pakistan hosts a coastline, rivers, glaciers and mountain ranges that shelter vital water sources as well as arid regions. It is crucial that all levels of society take responsibility for protecting the ecosystem.
If Pakistan ignores the climate change challenge, it does so at its own peril. The cost of ignoring climate change will be far greater in the future than investing in mitigation strategies now. If western liberal literature concerning the environment is insufficient than one need not look any further than the proscribed Islamic edicts that endorse our duties to the earth’s environment. As Muslims, we are sanctioned wardens of the earth, its environment and inhabitants. Both the Quran and the hadith house a rich tapestry of narratives verifying the dignity of creation, the value of the earth and our accountability to the Almighty. It is no longer adequate that Muslims be marginally aware of these principles; the time has come for us to practice them and put environmental ethics at the heart of our faith. Climate change is the key challenge of our age, and our collective actions or inactions now will determine the legacy we leave for generations to come.
As Pakistan has discovered, extreme weather events tend to have a cascading effect — the 2010 floods extended their reach into social, economic and political spheres as huge swathes of farmland were destroyed affecting rice prices, crops and food security. Moreover, the army’s role in coordinating the relief effort, in light of the civilian government’s feeble endeavours, may trigger political turmoil; the army gained much credibility in the wake of the disaster. The unprecedented floods of 2010 whereby the River Indus rose above the banks due to unusually heavy monsoon rains, affected over 20 million people, with almost one-fifth of Pakistan’s land awash with flooding and damage estimated to be around a staggering $ 40 billion plus. Certain commentators attribute this devastating event to climate change, whilst others do not, whether this can be substantiated is not the subject of this article. However, it should be noted that the 2010 floods coincided with the Russian forest fires instigated by heat waves resulting in the razing of the country’s wheat harvests. Furthermore, landslides in Northwest China occurred simultaneously, claiming over 700 lives and leaving thousands missing. It is unlikely this is coincidence, and can possibly be credited to climate pattern changes on an international scale. One thing is for certain: weather shifts are taking place in this region of the world and the repercussions of unpreparedness will prove to be ruinous.
According to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, the Asian continent accounts for 3/5 of the world’s population and, in terms of people affected worldwide by natural disasters, it leads the way with almost 75 percent, and these figures do not include individuals who cross borders. Pakistan ought to take heed of these disquieting statistics. The UNHCR (the UN’s Refugee Agency), in 2008, estimated that almost 24 million had been uprooted due to floods, famine and environmental disasters, exceeding the number of conflict refugees. There is also a broad consensus that the developing world will bear the brunt of the climate crisis, with almost 80 percent of the world’s refugee population located in the South, compounded further by internally displaced persons (as was the case in the aftermath of the floods) it does raise questions of how an already stretched Pakistan will manage with supplementary pressures.
The 1,800 mile Indus River basin, home to over 95 percent of the population and thereby the country’s lifeline, remains a source of contention between Pakistan and neighbouring India. The river is of fundamental strategic importance and is regulated by the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 whereby Pakistan has control of the western rivers and India has control of the eastern. The conflict-resources nexus has been widely discussed in academia and is gaining further prominence still. The availability of water is becoming uncertain, with climate change set to aggravate the issue; water is often addressed as ‘blue gold’ or the new oil and is now a commodity as opposed to a public good. Water has gained a strategic status where political rivalries and access to water have come to the fore of the debate. According to the website Global Policy, there are 300 potential conflicts over water, in some instances conflicts are already brewing. Pakistan can ill afford to be embroiled in a water dispute with a rival and upcoming international power; instead the country needs to focus its efforts on improving its internal socio-political infrastructure and implement proposals to sustain and conserve its ecosystem. The dams affiliated with the Indus facilitate crop production of necessities such as cotton and wheat. Furthermore, they are used to generate hydel electricity. Pakistan urgently needs to invest in diligent water management policies concerning the Indus, especially given that excess levels of pollution are increasingly being discovered in the river, which, in turn, will affect fresh water supplies leading to potentially perilous levels of scarcity. Water projects need to be managed vigilantly as more often than not they lead to the displacement of populations that must abandon their livelihoods and homes; this is not progressive development and will only exacerbate the social dilemmas Pakistan faces. Accusations of overdrawing and building dams that affect the equitable allocation of water flow abound. The Indus is a precious resource and indispensable to Pakistan’s functionality. It is by no means infinite and should not be treated as such.
(To be continued)
The writer is a doctoral student at the University of Sussex and can be contacted at [email protected]