Finally, the Pakistani legislature approved the foreign policy recommendations of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS), removing the major hurdle in the resumption of NATO supply lines. The final document is a little better than the first one, especially since it calls for removal of all intelligence assets from Pakistani soil and stoppage of drone strikes. Comments on social media suggest that a majority is quite emotional about reopening of the NATO supply lines. This in a way is evidence of a widening gap between the coalition government and people on the street. Protecting sovereignty is contingent upon all citizens but to take an extreme position that the NATO supply should not be resumed is unrealistic. None of our friends will support it including China, Afghanistan and Iran. The strategic review provided us an opportunity to take a holistic view of the region and come up with a strategy that not only protects our interests but also provides a vision for the emergence of a strong nation. The document fails to achieve that objective. It is important to understand that the drafting of these recommendations were of paramount interest to all players in the region and it is naive to assume that they did not work behind the scenes to ensure their interests are taken into account.
China recently expressed its displeasure that a certain South Asian country was used to create unrest in its Muslim majority Xinjiang province. China did not name Pakistan in its official press release, which is an interesting point to note for many reasons. First, it indicates that China does not believe that Pakistan is directly involved, but rather that the presence of foreign intelligence assets could be operating to train those terrorists. Second, China has a narrow but significant border with Afghanistan. The failure of the US in Afghanistan and emergence of an extremist conservative government could be counter to their interests. Therefore, they would prefer that the US special operations forces remain in Afghanistan as a hurdle to Taliban re-emergence. It is in this perspective that we should read the inclusion of the articles in the final draft that Pakistan’s soil will not be used for attacks on other countries, removal of foreign intelligence operatives from Pakistan and stoppage of granting access to military bases in Pakistan. Logistical services through Pakistan Railways and the National Logistics Cell (NLC) will ensure that containers are not abused for transportation of illegal material as happened in the last few years.
India has recently demonstrated a shift in its foreign policy position in the region. India is expressing appreciation for Pakistan’s interest in regional stability. Our insistence on the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline might be with the consent of India, considering its long-standing relationship with Iran and India’s insistence on the multilateral platform that the nuclear deadlock should be resolved through negotiations. The recent visit of President Zardari to India has opened the doors for increased diplomatic contacts. Approval of foreign direct investment from Pakistan and Pakistan’s granting of most favoured nation (MFN) status to India will further strengthen the relationship. India’s willingness to sell 5,000 MW of electricity will help reduce the supply-demand gap, thereby reducing incidents of public unrest. In the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, it is expected that agreements could be signed on Sir Creek and Siachen as well as adoption of an outline of negotiations to resolve the Kashmir issue. The PCNS articles on prevention of foreign terrorists attacking neighbours will be welcomed by India as they have filed repeated complaints on infiltration of terrorists into Kashmir. UN members considering India’s candidacy for a permanent seat on the Security Council will view improving relations with neighbours favourably.
The PCNS recommendations include provisions that will strengthen bilateral relations with Iran, which have been lukewarm in recent years. Unrest in Balochistan is a concern for Iran as the Baloch are a majority in its Seistan province, which has substantial production of oil. International media reports of foreign intelligence agents’ collusion with the terror group Jundullah have been viewed with suspicion by Iran. The public hearing by a US Congress sub-committee on Balochistan has aligned the interests of the two countries to work together. The recommendations of the PCNS to pursue the IPI pipeline, stoppage of drone flights and prevention of foreign terrorists attacking other countries will be welcome news for Iran. The visit by a Saudi diplomat to offer a concessional oil facility to Pakistan could be a carrot from the US in their efforts to isolate Iran.
Traditionally, Russia has claimed Central Asia and Afghanistan to be an area of its strategic interest. The rise of extremism in the Muslim majority Central Asian countries is a concern for Russia as it could be supportive of the separatist movement in Chechnya. Russia would prefer the continued presence of the US forces in Afghanistan but one that depends on its support. Pakistan’s insistence that only non-lethal supplies will be allowed to pass through should be viewed together with Putin’s announcement that the US can use the northern route for supplies.
Afghanistan, the country most affected by the war, seeks a reduction of the US footprint on its soil. President Karzai’s announcement to hold presidential elections a year early is intended to extend his government beyond 2014. He has been able to gain support from regional powers as the most viable moderate option. An ‘Afghan-led’ and ‘Afghan-owned’ resolution of the crisis is Pakistan’s carrot to Karzai to provide him the diplomatic cards to use to his advantage. But this could hurt Pakistan’s interests as we have given our diplomatic leverage into their hands. The PCNS insistence on prevention of infiltration of terrorists from across the border will help reduce the influence of TTP.
The US policy makers are aware of all these scenarios. Pakistan’s adoption of these recommendations does not make it contingent upon the US to accept them as well. They have already made announcements that they do not intend to abstain from using drones if they have credible intelligence of a terrorist presence. It is hard to imagine that they will reduce their intelligence assets on the ground but they may lay low for some time until emotions cool down. On the other hand, US Aid recently announced that it would reduce the number of projects in Pakistan. These developments could be public posturing for better negotiations. For some time the diplomatic mistrust will prevail unless both sides refrain from issuing negative statements. President Zardari’s participation in the Chicago Afghan conference will be a good opportunity to remove some of the hurdles.
It is a good development that a consensus was reached in the formulation of a foreign policy framework. There are certain inherent risks in the policy. Now it is the ability of Pakistan’s diplomatic corps to sell it to our friends, partners and allies.
The writer is the former President of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce-USA and member of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaaf (PTI). Views expressed are personal and do not represent official party position. He can be reached at [email protected]