Pakistan has recently been rocked by a wave of political intolerance in the aftermath of a spiralling political crisis threatening to stall the democratic process and economy. Tolerance towards opposing views is a characteristic that sets civilised societies apart from extreme ones. The lack of tolerance has been exploited in the past by political leaders with catastrophic consequences. As history has shown, absolutist leaders did not rise to power without the support of frustrated masses fed up with their abysmal circumstances and placed in a position where they felt they had nothing left to lose. The result was one of the darkest periods of human history. While the idea of history repeating itself in this way is not far-fetched, the dream of a tolerant society still eludes us.
In the case of Pakistan, the situation is exacerbated by the current economic and political crisis. The country’s perpetually unstable politics have been exceptionally turbulent over the last few weeks, culminating in the setup of interim governments in two of the four provinces and delays in the electoral process. The political instability and economic crisis are locked in a feedback loop, each making the other worse. Growth has stagnated, and a severe dollar shortage is impeding imports. Food shortages are leading to price increases, with inflation hitting 36.4% year on year in April 2023. The government has been struggling to restart a stalled funding program with the IMF that was suspended since November and is set to expire in June. The question remains whether it will be enough to get the country out of this quagmire.
Meanwhile, the ousted prime minister has been leading rallies across the country, questioning the legitimacy of the new government and calling for fresh elections.
Absolutist leaders did not rise to power without the support of frustrated masses fed up with their abysmal circumstances
This economic crisis in Pakistan led to price shocks leaving many hungry throughout Ramadan, and the World Bank warned last month that it might undo gains made against poverty over the previous two decades and decimate the earnings of already struggling households. The country’s ability to make debt payments has also been called into question, with Moody’s downgrading the country’s credit rating in late February, citing insufficient foreign currency reserves to cover imports and external debt obligations in the short- and medium-term.
In an attempt to quell the unrest on the streets, authorities blocked all cellular internet access across the country; a move that was criticised as being “damaging” by the Global System for Mobile Communications Association Pakistan (GSMA), an industry body representing mobile network operators. This action led to a sharp drop in economic productivity and digital services, including digital payments. Telecom companies in Pakistan alone suffered an estimated loss of Rs 2.46 billion in revenue, with a corresponding decrease of Rs 861 million in tax revenue for the government. The economic loss caused by the sudden suspension of internet services without a well-thought-out strategy is considerably greater.
Investors believe that measures proposed by the IMF to strengthen the country’s fiscal condition are unlikely to be agreed upon since they would contribute to economic suffering in the short term. Despite the current government’s efforts to repair the economic damage, the risk of Pakistan defaulting on its debt is increasing, and Moody’s estimates the country’s external financing needs for the fiscal year 2024, which begins in July and ends in June of the following year, to be in the range of US $35 billion to $36 billion. The threat may linger for some time, and Pakistan’s capacity to handle the external sector issue through July and probably into August will be critical.
Under such an economic crisis, all parties must work together to restore stability and ensure that the democratic process can move forward. State institutions should adhere to their constitutional roles and create a balance of power that strengthens democracy. To ensure all political stakeholders have a say in these processes, those not represented in parliament should also be included in direct talks with the government. All issues must be resolved on the floor of the parliament with a focus on respecting the separation of powers between the legislature, executive, and judiciary. This approach will help curb constant judicial overreach to resolve issues and bring an end to institutional tussles. By acknowledging the supreme authority of parliament and engaging in a broad-based national dialogue with openness and sincerity, all political parties can work together towards resolving the economic crisis and upholding democratic integrity.
Pakistan has long been plagued by political turmoil, but the present environment of unprecedented intolerance and instability threatens to damage the country’s progress towards becoming a stable and successful democracy. The hope is that sanity will prevail and that the country will emerge from this volatile era stronger and more unified than ever.
The writer is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan. She may be reached at [email protected].