The Indus Water Treaty, a seminal agreement signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, stands as a beacon of hope in an otherwise tumultuous relationship between these neighbouring nations. Brokered by the World Bank, the treaty serves as the cornerstone for the equitable distribution of the Indus River and its tributaries, providing a clear framework for resolving disputes over the allocation of these precious water resources. Despite the frequent conflicts that have arisen between these two nations, the Indus Water Treaty has persevered, a testament to the power of cooperation and the vital importance of shared resource management. However, as developments continue to evolve and tensions rise, the future of this treaty remains in question, casting a shadow over the stability of the region and heightening the risk of escalation.
Agriculture, the lifeblood of both economies, is heavily reliant on the waters of the Indus and its tributaries, with 42.6% of India’s workforce and 16.8% of its GDP tied to the sector, and 42.3% of Pakistan’s workforce and 18.9% of its GDP similarly dependent. Hydropower projects and water storage facilities are also critical components of the overall economic and energy landscape of the region.
However, recent developments such as the suspension of talks regarding the Indus Water treaty in 2016, abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, and statements from Indian lawmakers threatening Pakistan and India’s efforts to modify the treaty have put the future and viability of this crucial treaty at risk. India’s construction of the Kishenganga and Ratle dams on the Indus River has been met with opposition from Pakistan and has become a source of contention, with the World Bank playing a limited role in mediating the conflict.
At a time when the demand for cooperation in water management has become even higher due to looming threats of climate change, the uncertainty on the preservation of this vital treaty puts a serious risk.
The process by which both parties would solve their differences regarding the Indus Water Treaty has become a source of the conflict itself as Pakistan being optimistic regarding the arbitration court is challenged by the Indian side which proposed the dispute resolution by appointment of a neutral expert. The concurrent mode of conflict resolution through arbitration council and neutral experts also puts the treaty at risk as these parallel processes may result in two conflicting outcomes that could spell the end of the Indus Water Treaty.
India’s recent request for modification to the Indus Water Treaty has been met with scepticism in Pakistan. There are concerns that India may use this opportunity to weaken the treaty or even withdraw from it, which would have a devastating impact on Pakistan as a lower riparian state relying heavily on the water distribution set forth by the treaty.
At a time when the demand for cooperation in water management has become even higher due to looming threats of climate change by the world generally and this region specifically, the uncertainty on the preservation of this vital treaty puts a serious risk as any such move will have more significant consequences such as food security, climate change as it has been observed that natural calamities are blind to borders. Moreover, Pakistan’s dependence on Indus Water Treaty being the low riparian state compels Pakistan to take the matter as a threat to its survival.
To ensure the preservation of the Indus Waters Treaty and protect its water resources, Pakistan must take a proactive approach, including diplomatic efforts to raise the issue with international organizations and seek support from allies and other countries in the region to pressurize India to respect the treaty along with putting great efforts at legal fronts through international courts or tribunals if India violates the treaty. Along with these measures, Investment in modern technologies and infrastructure to improve water management is also the need of the hour as a major share of water which Pakistan wastes could be preserved and can be used for irrigation, power generation or storage purposes but due to ill management, poor infrastructure and lack of modern technologies and techniques, this water haunts the nation in form of floods every year and threats are exacerbated by the risk of violation or termination of Indus Water Treaty as there will be no mechanism to control the flow of water coming from rivers.
Any unilateral decision or termination of this treaty also poses a serious threat to strategic stability in South Asia as both nuclear rivals have a long history of wars and water is such a pivotal issue having the potential of becoming a nuclear flashpoint. It has become the responsibility of the international community and organizations to play their role in maintaining the check and balances over such issues so that any such issue should be resolved peacefully. Thus it remains a delicate and complex issue, deserving of continued attention and analysis. Its survival is crucial to the peace and tranquillity of the region, and it is incumbent upon both India and Pakistan to enhance trust and engage in constructive dialogue to ensure its longevity.
The writer is a student of Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in Islamabad and can be reached at aneesejaz7@gmail.com.