It is with a great sense of optimism that one reads about the peace talks held between the Afghan Taliban and representatives of the Afghan regime. Pakistan has finally come through on the promise made by General Raheel Sharif and Prime Minister (PM) Nawaz Sharif to the previous Afghan president, Hamid Karzai: that the Afghan Taliban would be persuaded to join talks with representatives of the Afghan government. The Murree talks were the most comprehensive of all Afghan peace talks held so far, having the widest representation. Afghanistan’s deputy foreign minister along with special assistants of both President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah represented the Afghan government. The Afghan Taliban were represented by a very senior team led by the ex-law minister of the then Taliban government, Mullah Abbas. The Haqqani group was also represented. Representatives of the US and China participated as observers or guarantors, whereas Pakistan’s foreign secretary participated as a facilitator.
The presence of US and Chinese delegates showed how much importance the world is giving to the success of these talks. The whole process was a concerted international effort. The Murree accord also proved Pakistan’s efforts and sincerity in convening the peace process although Pakistan has also received a lot of flak for procrastinating in holding these talks. According to a Pakistani official: “Pakistan’s role as a facilitator was not easy. It took months of intense efforts to persuade the Taliban.” The same official added: “The Taliban backed out a number of times, just several moments before the start of the peace process.”
It has to, however, be remembered that for the Afghan peace process to succeed it has to be entirely Afghan owned. The nitty gritty and final terms of the peace accord have also to be decided by the Afghan government and the Afghan insurgents. Outside powers, including Pakistan, can only nudge efforts of the two Afghan sides to the conflict. In the Murree peace process both sides were forceful but never acrimonious in putting forward their point of view. Dr Maliha Lodhi, Pakistan’s permanent representative to the UN, put it succinctly by saying: “Reconciliation is a process and not on event.” As per Pakistani officials, the Muree conference should not be seen as a one off process as more meetings are certainly going to follow after Eid.
Certain national and international factors also make it an opportune moment for Pakistan to take an active lead in the Afghan peace process. Some of these auspicious developments are: the US’s determination to withdraw from Afghanistan, in view of its economic corridor and one belt, one road policy, greater Chinese willingness to participate in peace talks, and large swathes of Pakistani territory being cleared off of the Pakistani Taliban by the army, thus creating political space for talks between Afghan factions.
The Murree peace talks will give Afghan President Dr Ashraf Ghani tremendous respite against scathing criticism from his allies in the unity government, especially the Northern Alliance. The persistent attacks on Dr Ghani for not being able to persuade Pakistan to fulfill its promise of delivering the Afghan Taliban to the peace table will hopefully cease. Dr Ghani, who was seen to be losing patience with Pakistan, will now get more political space.
The Murree peace accords were no doubt an auspicious beginning towards resolving an intractable conflict in Afghanistan. The going, however, should not be expected to be smooth. An array of factors militating against the peace process is in the field, which could jeopardise the peace process at any stage. Some of these factors are as follows:
First of all, despite the talks under Pakistan’s pressure, the Afghan Taliban seem to be following the policy of ‘talk and fight’. Their spring offensive has been particularly brutal this year. By putting all their resources into the battlefield in view of the US drawdown, the Taliban have launched a very forceful spring offensive in the northern districts, which are traditionally not considered to be Taliban strongholds. It will not be easy for the Taliban to explain to the rank and file the logic and rationale of holding peace talks with the Afghan regime, which most Taliban foot soldiers consider to be on its way out in the absence of reinforcement by US troops.
Many of the young rank and file Taliban and their field commanders are too young to have had any direct contact with Mullah Omar. They are thus not too enamoured of him, thus having weak ties of loyalty towards him and his shura (council) in Pakistan, which is in any case blighted by infighting. Some of these young field commanders have openly threatened to revolt and join Islamic State (IS) in case talks are held with Afghan forces.
The elephant in the room seems to be IS. The transnational terrorist organistion seems to have found some adherents who have defected from the Taliban. These defectors find the pan-Islamic and transnational proclivities of IS more attractive. In many parts of Afghanistan, pitched battles are being fought between IS and the Taliban. In an ironic move, US drones have started targeting the IS leadership, recently killing both ex-Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid and IS ameer (chief) of the Khorasan region, Seed Khan Orakzai. Due to their pan-Islamic and transnational influences, expecting IS to participate in the peace talks is absolutely unrealistic, as their avowed aim is a universal Islamic caliphate. The only way to deal with IS, for both Afghanistan and Pakistan, would be to try and neutralise it as expeditiously as possible before it strikes deep roots in the region.
For the success of these peace talks the role of the Haqqani group is vital. The Haqqanis are considered to be the most potent militant group inside Afghanistan. They were represented in the Murree talks in a perfunctory manner. However this, perhaps, was not enough. Separate sounding of the Haqqani group by the Pakistani authorities is essential to bring them wholeheartedly into the process. The Haqqani group still seems to be intact politically and not bedeviled by leadership wrangling like the Taliban shura led by Mullah Omar. Pakistan’s leverage with the Haqqanis is also far greater as compared to other groups. Being a mature group with experienced leaders, the Haqqanis are expected to show more political vision than the Taliban shura.
The success of the peace talks is vital for peace to return to war-ravaged Afghanistan but the success of the talks is by no means certain. The efforts by Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Taliban and the international community must continue with complete sincerity and commitment.
The writer is a freelance columnist