In a perfect world, the Global Economy would rely on several factors to down-tick its Quarterly performance. However, in the turbulent world we live in, Gas prices are a big determinant of how we see our next step, revolutionising the Global Market.
Energy Prices have been on a roller coaster since the Pandemic began. It was at record high prices in 2019, where steps were taken by OPEC to drive sustainable demand, and then at a record low, selling below zero dollars for an unprofitable pricing front for companies. The lack of demand pushed companies to make it less readily available, causing a temporary shortage in many countries. 2022 brought an opportunity for both OPEC and the major oil producers of the world to reform the energy industry, citing other seismic shifts in market behaviour. Then, the War in Ukraine happened. The War, no doubt was an eye-opener for many, who saw rising demand, after ending lockdowns, a supply shortage from one of the world’s largest suppliers. A supply shock in the making was what drastically raised energy prices globally, specifically in Europe, who’s looking to end its flow into Germany from the infamous Nordstream pipeline powered by Russian Giant Gazprom.
About the issue, S&P Global put out a statement, “there were again signs that inflationary pressures at businesses have passed their peak, with rates of increase in both input costs and output prices softening across the board.” They believe the relief is yet to come, with the worse part of the inflation crisis behind us. But is that relief short-lived? With inflation creeping into multiple countries around the world, there are fewer chances of a non-existent negative trickle-down effect. The UK is predicted to be heading to an 18 per cent consumer inflation cap, which could turn out to be disastrous following lower forecasts by economists at the National Bank of England.
With inflation creeping into multiple countries around the world, there are fewer chances of a non-existent negative trickle-down effect.
Let’s take a look at the US, where business activity matches the S&P Global predictions for North America. Just to paint a picture in simple terms, the index indicating levels above 50 signposts an expansion, while anything below signifies contraction. One of the largest industries-the service industry- landed itself from 47 to 43, down almost 4 points, in a period of one month, from July to August. The manufacturing index is also down a point in the same period sample.
This all, midst a scrambling Federal Reserve, being criticised by many after it rose interest rates to a percentage point, following calls for action of a looming recession. Many fear, that the Fed’s steps, even those it is to take in September-would likely not curb the inflation crisis, and might even be a step too late, in the fight against a recession.
The National Association of Business Economics recently took a survey of economists, of which 72 per cent believed that the US recession will begin by Quarter 2 of 2023 if it hasn’t already started. The timeline put forth by NABE is prolonged in two years, where it expects the two per cent Fed goal to be achieved by the inevitability of a recession, or recurring recessions, during this ever-so-challenging cost of living crisis. So what does this mean for consumers? As Bespoke puts it, it’s the “The Great American Summer of Falling Gas Prices.” And although it may seem hysterical, it is truly a reflection of what consumers see in Gas Stations across America. In the past 70 days, the price dropped about three-fourths of a dollar, signalling a shift in what measures the Authority had taken to decrease the supply shock in the country. And while lowering energy prices may be the positive message, the world hopes to see; it is no way near the troubles that loom.
As mentioned earlier with declining business sectors in many parts of the world, there is no flip-switch approach to cutting costs. The catchphrase Quiet Quitting is a representation of employment numbers, and just how willing companies are to retain their workforce. Now, no doubt, with rising production costs, and a handful of market externalities, Companies are going to have to raise their strategy. But for most companies, that means cutting costs, from places where profit doesn’t collapse. It means cutting job numbers and hiring fewer people, for more loads of work. The term Quiet Quitting is a series of the mass exodus from primarily, the services industry, as they see their real wage half, and workload triple.
This, no doubt, has had a toll on Business Activity, citing lower national quarterly outputs, and eventually an unsustainable and inefficient monetary policy, by economic regulatory authorities such as the Fed and the Bank of England.
Let’s discuss an example of a business. Macy’s, known for its high economic standards in markets, as well as a viable stock, released its Q2 earnings report earlier this month. It cited the high toll inflation had taken on its shoppers. Macy’s quotes itself losing about three per cent of customer sales in its mainstream outlets which tends to attract middle class-to upper-income communities. It also cited that its luxury products sold in its subsidiary brands reported a rise of about eight per cent in its earnings for the second quarter. This helped highlight a class divide, in the economy, not only pointing towards inequities in this looming recession, but also to the profit outlook for its company, which prides itself on enduring its profit maximisation and worker retention strategies.
In conclusion, it is not only the consumer, who is a victim of economic pressures. Businesses and cumulative economies are at the forefront of a declining landscape.
The writer is a freelance columnist