In the past few days, revelations about the presence of Russian military advisors in Syria have grabbed the attention of many. While academics and observers have been forced to take refuge in old Cold War references, it seems as though the US foreign policy establishment has been caught unawares by Russian assertiveness on the battlefield of the Middle East. Keeping in mind the prospects of a Russian rise under Vladimir Putin, it really comes as no surprise that Russia has decided to up the ante just a bit further by positioning itself just a tad closer to several US and concomitant interests in the region. In damage control mode, the US is now desirous of coordinating its own mission in Syria with the Russians in order to weaken Islamic State (IS).
The situation in Syria right now is catastrophically complicated and any suggestions that the situation can be resolved by this or that measure have to be taken with a block of salt. The US started applying pressure on the Syrian leadership in 2013 to heed calls for domestic reform and restructuring. At one point, there was even talk of how the US would land troops on Syrian ground in order to impose regime change.
But Assad called Obama’s bluff and did not even flinch at the prospect of an intervention. So, when the threat of a US intervention failed to grab Assad’s attention, the US started arming rebel groups in Syria as well as newly evacuated Iraq to topple the Syrian regime. As a result of this ultimately misinformed effort, gruelling conflict and civil war erupted in Syria that further added to the woes of ordinary Syrians. Even today, in areas outside governmental or IS control, rival factions in Syrian towns choose to belt it out for territorial control with heavy artillery and weapons that were made readily available during the rebel arming effort.
And, as if this were not tragic enough, IS, many of whose members must be using US supplied firearms to kill some and maim others, burst onto the Middle Eastern scene around the same time, and any and all semblance of hope for sorting out the mess in the region went out the window.
If all this is mindboggling, do not despair; the situation is truly this terrible. The US is now fighting IS in Syria with a coalition of other countries, most notable of which is Turkey, since it has traditionally shied away from active participation in the regional politics of the Middle East. The irony is that the Assad regime and the US are objectively fighting on the same side against the threat of IS.
Now, to complicate things further, Putin has landed Russian military personnel and hardware on Syrian ground to honour his long-standing commitment to the Syrian government. On the face of it, Russia is justifying its intervention in Syria with the noble intention of ridding the country of IS but observers have been quick to point out the obvious strategic elements involved in this move to balance out the US’s presence in the region.
Still reeling from the success of the Iran deal, this development has understandably made the Israelis even more insecure about their standing, forcing the US to address the situation through either engaging in talks with the Russian leadership or to respond in kind. There is, of course, a third option: to do nothing at all and focus on the domestic situation at home but hegemons like the US do not want to go down that route. In international relations, the role of the hegemon does not come cheap and wilful sacrifices have to be made in order to ensure its continuation.
On the one hand now, there is a genuine case that can be made for Russian supremacy in various territories where the US has historically enjoyed influence. Wars and interventions have left the US establishment wary of further involvement in international affairs and even though President Obama has been hard at work mending relations with former adversaries, it remains to be seen how active a role the US will play in the Middle East, especially since a changeover in leadership through presidential elections is due next year.
In the presence of US unwillingness to sustain its hegemonic role in the Middle East and beyond, other contenders will surely start to make their moves. So far, even though various countries like China and India have made strategic investments in several Central Asian states, the confidence with which Russia’s Vladimir Putin has been able to assert his position remains unmatched.
Some, however, still believe that such moves by Russia are merely posturing and constitute nothing more than attempts to hide internal troubles. For this camp, Putin’s endeavours amount to little more than antics to shore up support for his long reign. The troubles with the ruble are hardly news to anyone now and its devaluation has wreaked havoc in the domestic economic structure of Russia. Add to that the burden of increasing international engagement and pretty soon the reverberations will start to shake up things in the internal political structure.
But we must bear in mind that the human cost of all this has been humungous. Millions upon millions of Syrians have had to flee their homes because of civil war in Syria and seek shelter on the unsure shores of the European Union. As things stand, the conflict in Syria is showing no signs of a downturn anytime soon and with Russia throwing its hat into the Middle Eastern ring, this may just turn out to be a very red October after all.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations