Last week, the democratic government in Pakistan achieved a bit of a landmark when the first phase of the local government elections was finally held in parts of Punjab and Sindh in compliance with an earlier ruling of the Supreme Court (SC). The SC had been trying to nudge the provincial governments into devolving power to the grassroots ever since the passage of the 18th Amendment.
In the wake of both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan — two provinces less laden with resources compared to both Punjab and Sindh — holding local elections in their respective constituencies fairly early after the decision, both the latter provinces had fought to delay the elections as far down the line as they could. But the levee finally broke, and now the electoral flood comes forth. Pakistan’s prior experiments with devolutions of power to the grassroots level have hardly been benevolent or effective. The names might have been different under which local government elections were held in the past but each time the intent was not to devolve power but to actually dismantle the traditional networks of influence in favour of military dictators.
But the holding of elections at the local level by elected governments takes Pakistan further along the pathway of democratic consolidation. Yes, the system is imperfect, with ample room for discretion, but at least there is some attention being paid to local governance. Given enough time and commitment, the Pakistani populace can learn to grow comfortable with the idea of a participatory democracy and local administration is a key aspect in that regard.
Given such a chequered past, it is no surprise that the general attitude towards local elections among politicians remains one of wariness. Even after increased pressure on successive democratic governments to hold the aforesaid elections for a while, politicians resisted the urge to comply since doing so would mean sharing power with new entrants, a possibility that is loath to politicians. But Punjab and Sindh found themselves running out of excuses at a rapid pace, and they eventually had to bite the bullet and hold elections at the union council, city and district levels last week.
The results of this first phase of elections, however, have left many dazed and confused. Instead of reflecting the new fault lines in the political landscape of Pakistan that have made themselves evident at the national level, electoral results ended up solidifying the traditional patterns of influence, as if rebelling against the march of time itself and disappointing many optimists in the process. As things stand, the first phase has seen the PML-N and the PPP emerge as the leaders in terms of seats won in Punjab and Sindh respectively. More interestingly, in second place in Punjab stand the independent candidates, with the PTI — yes, the larger-than-life party running on a seemingly endless supply of support and energy — bringing up the rear in third place.
However, the results of these elections should hardly surprise anyone. Local government elections are always biased in favour of the incumbent party because of its ability to deliver future goods through its privileged access to office. Just one cycle of incumbency is enough to tilt the scales in favour of any party but the PML-N has been in power in Punjab for a long time, albeit with interludes of military interventions. Additionally, the biradri (caste) vote becomes crucially active and important in local government elections. In a system where merit and transparency go by the way side in almost every appointment, sticking to people within your caste — often times a proxy for community in Pakistan — can lead to future benefits and personal gains.
The above-mentioned reasons become vital in governmental elections at the grassroots level because they are endogenous to the Pakistani political system. And the reason for that is that the idea of holding office has become an end in itself over the years. Holding office gives you access to hitherto unavailable resources for inducing client-patron relationship with the voters, whereby the bonds of patronage get solidified over time. For such reasons, the PTI, unable to entice voters with juicy carrots, fared so poorly in the recent elections. Its credibility in delivering on its promises remains questionable simply because people have not had enough time to see how the party’s policies translate in their real lives. The party simply has not been in power long enough for the voters to know for sure if they stand to gain from the party’s policies. Additionally, the party, by its own admission, did not mobilise the same level of resources it did at the time of the NA-122 elections. It is no surprise then that it was beaten to second place by the independents, themselves a formidable force when it comes to local elections.
Focusing on being anti-status quo can get a new political outfit some political mileage to begin with but, ultimately, the party has to evolve into its own identity based on clear-cut policy positions. This has been lacking from the PTI folds of late. Bickering in its ranks, combined with Imran Khan’s stubbornness, has cost the party dearly and will continue to do so in the absence of course correction from the party.
But, nonetheless, it is too early to claim that the PTI’s best days are behind it already. As mentioned in the above lines, the electoral incentives in local government elections work differently than the way they do at the national level and the PTI can — after putting in some work — learn to align their resources with the incentive structure at the local level. The party has certainly shown itself to be able to mount credible challenges to the PML-N time and time again even in the latter’s strongholds, and if it can move away from its anti-PML-N identity and start building one of its own, the party can surely look forward to a stronger position in the country both at the national and the local level.
The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations