Every month, Pakistan produces a Singapore. Every year, Pakistan produces a Canada. Before we raise our hands in appreciation of the miracle of matching these two countries in their economic growth, wait, as what we are comparing is that every month Pakistan’s population is adding more people to its already bulging space than the total population of these two countries. And if this is not frightening then nothing will ever be. A country that cannot provide two meals daily to 60 percent of its existing population, a country that cannot ensure safe drinking water to 70 percent of its most developed cities like Lahore and Islamabad is a country that, by ticking a negative cross on the population planning box, has already ticked a time bomb exploding every now and then in the country. The exact number of people in the country is not really known even to the ministry of population and planning. Estimates range from 180 to 190 to 200 million. Just imagine the impact of this variation of tens of millions of people on all types of plans be it demographics, socio-economic estimates or political policymaking.
Pakistan is the sixth most populous nation in the world, and not only that but is also growing at some speed. The growth rate is 1.92 percent, which in effect means that by 2050, Pakistan will be a 300 million plus people country bigger than the European Union, which has 27 countries in it. The youth bulge and the infant overflow has in its existing numbers created a mockery of all types of human and social development. The economy is already unable to sustain the burden of this heavy influx of babies in the country and no amount of resource planning will be able to cover this massive mass that will keep on congesting this already burdened earth within the geography of Pakistan.
But the question is: if the headcount is a guestimate, the additional child count is almost a toss of the coin. Why are we so reluctant to know how many we are? A census in Pakistan was at one time conducted every 10 years starting from the first in 1951, the second in 1961, the third in 1972, the fourth in 1981 and the fifth, which was due in 1991, was conducted in March 1998. Thereafter it has been shoved under political apathy.
A census is deemed to be one of the most basic elements for the judicious distribution of resources, representation in parliament, electoral processes, tax collection and other civic issues including growing urbanisation and evaluation of resources for infrastructure development. That by itself may be the reason behind why this has been deemed unworthy of attention and resources. The census figures will have huge impact on seats share and revenue distribution of the provinces. Allocation of budgets, energy, gas, political voice, National Finance Commission (NFC) awards and water rights, all will change. Constituency delimitations and electoral vote planning will undergo upheavals. That is why, despite having no census in the last 18 years, the present deadline of March 2016 is also being postponed under the pretext of the army being too occupied in fighting terrorists to be spared for monitoring this exercise.
That is precisely why we have been unable to fight terrorism except in spurts. Killing a few thousand people in an army operation is great and the army needs to be commended for it but not taking care of the explosive birthrate especially in FATA and other areas where the birthrate is twice the national average means that the nursery for potential unexposed minds and deprived bodies is increasing at a much higher pace than the elimination of terrorists. With the Pakistani economy performing poorly and the rich-poor gap increasing more and more, not only will this political indifference cause more poverty and illiteracy but definitely more unrest, violence and terrorism.
Population planning and control have a direct impact on population welfare. If the business of the government is the welfare of the people and it is not even bothered to manage the size of its dependents then all budget and development planning is a hoax. Why numbers and development are related is a case study that is quoted everywhere and that is China. The resurgence of China would never have been possible if the Chinese had not realised the importance of managing family size. They gave it top priority, legislated for it, ran programmes, devised penalties for non-compliance, etc. Yes, there have been numerous studies on the negative socio-cultural aspects of such a policy in China but its benefits to lift China’s existing population out of the poverty circle and make China a superpower are indisputable.
If you think China is an extreme example, take Bangladesh, which was once part of Pakistan. It is not only growing at a much faster rate economically but has decelerated its population growth rate to a much lower level than Pakistan. Their awareness and management programmes are now being quoted as case studies for localising to the culture and achieving success. They used mosques and mullahs in villages to promote the concept of having less children by basing it on Islamic tenets of remaining within your means. All this is possible if the government thinks this subject is even worth a discussion leave aside prioritisation. The state of reluctance to do something about this is also visible in legislation banning child marriages, which is one of the main contributors to higher growth rates. The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) and other vested interests have made this subject almost taboo. Bills are presented and never passed, and the political parties in favour of it consider it too controversial to stick their necks out beyond token presentation.
The fact of the matter is that the bomb blasts terrorising the country are fed by the population time bomb that has already ticked and exploded. While the National Action Plan (NAP) does talk about emergency measures in FATA and Balochistan, it still does not talk about population control without which all additional resource allocation will become as scarce and as insufficient in the future as it is today. Population planning is the foundation of all development. When this foundation is weak any build up of energy, education or employment will just keep on crumbling and disintegrating.
The writer is a columnist and analyst, and can be reached at [email protected]