The May 2013 election is going to be the most crucial election in Pakistan’s political and constitutional history. It will decide the direction of Pakistan’s political system, either maturing towards enduring democracy or continued political instability. On March 16, 2013, Pakistan passed through an important moment of its political and constitutional history. The first elected civilian government and parliament completed a full five-year term in office (2008-13). The next general election is scheduled to be held on May 11, 2013 to elect a new government. It is a milestone in a country which, since its creation in 1947, has seen three martial laws, repeated dismissal of civilian governments through extra-constitutional manoeuvring and troubled civil-military relations leading to perpetual political instability and uncertainty.
It signifies that despite various challenges, the country’s parliamentary system is maturing. The peaceful transfer of power from one democratic civilian government to another will further strengthen the country’s fragile democratic process.
Public resentment against the outgoing Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led civilian government’s failure to manage a slowing economy, curb the endemic corruption in government institutions and failure to overcome enduring electricity breakdowns (up to 18 hours a day at the peak of summer) makes this achievement a hollow milestone. With a modest GDP growth of 3.7 percent, Pakistan is the slowest growing South Asian economy. At the same time, the volatile security situation stemming from the government’s failure to rein in the sectarian and the Taliban militant groups hardly wins any applause from Pakistanis.
The May 2013 elections are the most crucial in Pakistan after the 1970 elections, which led to the dismemberment of the country, with the east wing now known as Bangladesh breaking away. These elections will decide the direction of Pakistan’s future political outlook. It will be the first opportunity for the electorate to try to vote out a civilian government and decide who replaces it.
In the last few years Pakistan’s political system has become a heavily contested domain. Unlike the last two elections, a wide array of political actors is contesting the May 2013 elections. The Baloch nationalist political parties, cricketer-turned-philanthropist-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Party of Justice) (PTI) and right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), which boycotted the 2008 election, are participating in the 2013 election.
Moreover, the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) of the former military ruler Pervez Musharraf has also announced to run in the upcoming elections. Musharraf has returned to Pakistan on March 24 to officially start his election campaign. At the same time, Khan’s impressive political gathering in Lahore, the provincial capital of Punjab, on March 23 has set the alarm bells ringing for the two mainstream political parties, the PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).
The May 2013 elections are about a different set of issues: In the May 2013 election the issues are more pressing, and relate to the domestic economy as compared to issues that shaped voters’ choices in the 2002 and 2008 elections. Therefore, it will require more nuanced and policy-oriented election manifestoes from the political parties to win over the electorate, instead of lofty and hollow rhetoric.
The 2002 elections were held a year after the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan. They were heavily centred on the anti-US sentiments and voted to power a six-party religious alliance, the Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and southwestern Balochistan provinces. The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) formed the government at the Centre, along with wining majority seats in Punjab and Sindh provinces. The PPP and PML-N did poorly in the 2002 election because their top leadership was in exile and elections were heavily rigged in favour of pro-Musharraf political forces.
Meanwhile, the 2008 elections that catapulted the PPP and PML-N into dominating positions were contested on three major issues: the Red Mosque Operation in Islamabad (July 2007), restoration of Pakistan’s superior court judges deposed by Musharraf (March 2007) and the assassination of the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto (December 2007). In the 2008 elections the PPP greatly benefited from the sympathy vote on Bhutto’s assassination in interior Sindh. Meanwhile, in urban Punjab, the PML-N exploited the anti-Musharraf sentiments emanating from his decision to conduct a military operation in the Laal Masjid and dismissal of the superior judiciary.
For some years now, the PPP and PML-N have dominated electoral politics in Pakistan. The PPP has always enjoyed popular support in interior Sindh and rural Punjab. Meanwhile, urban Punjab has been the hub of the PML-N. The outcomes of elections in Balochistan and KP have been varied.
The rise of the PTI as a third major political force on Pakistan’s political landscape has made the electoral environment more competitive. Notwithstanding a six percent decrease in its public ratings in the last six months, the PTI is still the second most popular political party in Pakistan after the PML-N, according to the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) survey. The 2013 elections are going to be a three-way contest unlike the two-way-contest between the PPP and PML-N in the past. The urban, upper middle class supports the PTI in Punjab and KP.
The overwhelming number of young voters in the electoral lists can be the game changers in the 2013 election. Out of an electoral list of 83 million, 47 percent registered voters are between the age of 18 and 35 — approximately 39 million people. According to the National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), out of these 39 million people, around 30 million are those who until three years ago were not listed in the electoral rolls. These 30 million voters included people who turned 18 in the last three years and did not have national identity cards until now or had identity cards but were not registered in the voting list.
Faced with a plethora of internal and external challenges, a peaceful transition of power through free and fair elections is essential for the strengthening of the democratic institutions in Pakistan. The election process will carry the political debate forward from ‘restoration and survival of the political system’ to a ‘performance-based accountable system.’
The writer is a Senior Analyst at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR), a constituent of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He can be reached at [email protected]