“Kashmir” is a word that encapsulates countless human stories, stories of struggle and freedom, stories of a princely state falling victim to the greed of some. Interestingly, the etymological meaning of Kashmir is land desiccated from water, yet it is the valley’s “water resources” that make it so strategically crucial.
February 5, Kashmir Solidarity Day, I desperately waited for the newspapers to read what the writers think and have to say on an issue that is an integral part of our political and strategic conversation and history. Today, as I flipped through one article after the other, I knew I had to pen down the story of Kashmir from an economist’s eye.
The human rights violation in Kashmir cannot be stressed enough, and I am glad that many intellectuals have captured the very essence of this heart-wrenching subject. However, I want our youngsters to realise that the Kashmir dispute did not merely arise by rejecting the right of the Muslim Majority princely state to be part of the then newly formed state of Pakistan, poor annexation, or the total disregard for the future of its people. At the heart of this dispute is the economic benefit that India can gain by controlling the territory and also the economic loss Pakistan can suffer as India continues to violate not just human rights but the valley’s resources.
The indecisiveness of Maharaja Hari Singh to accede to either India or Pakistan, leading to the birth of an Independent State of Kashmir, is the first step in what was to give rise to the unending politics of water and the strategic struggle between India and Pakistan. Today India continues to construct dams and expensive hydro-power projects on the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) worth billions of dollars. What is truly sad is that the Indus Water Treaty does not provide any guidance or protection on the matter leading to India’s further abuse of power on the western waters of the Indus Basin – perhaps water terrorism is a more fitting term.
There is a dire need to restructure Pakistan’s economy, public institutions, and entire social and political structure.
Some of the most famous dams in IOK include Bhakra Nangal, Baglihar (worth the US $1 billion), Uri Hydroelectric Dam, Kishanganga Dam, and more. These dams are strategically built on Chenab, Sutlej and Ravi, leading to severe water shortages in Pakistan. As the human cost of these dams constructions in Kashmir rises due to the unjust population displacement, its effects have started to be felt across Pakistan through severe water shortages.
John Briscoe, a sub-continental water expert, former World Bank senior water expert, and currently a professor at Harvard University, recognised Pakistan’s unhappy position in the following words: “This is a very uneven playing field. The regional hegemon is the upper riparian and has all the cards in its hands.”
Adding to this challenge were the pseudo-intellectuals who neither could develop a strong narrative on international platforms against this water terrorism by India nor were adequate in helping the Pakistani governments resolve the water crisis. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources predicts that Pakistan could face absolute water scarcity by 2025. Pakistan’s population has increased more than six-fold since 1951 and will increase further from around 208 million in 2017 to over 400 million by 2050. Given that agriculture accounts for a significant portion of Pakistan’s GDP (20 per cent) and is also the country’s largest consumer of water, it is estimated that the water economy in Pakistan could boost the country’s annual agricultural GDP to $200 billion from its current level of $50 billion by achieving a billion-dollar output. But with, the water terrorism by India could leave the country’s economy crippled.
Pakistan’s leadership must take matters in hand and move towards an amicable solution to resolve the water crisis. It was until 2019 that Punjab became the first province to pass its water legislation – the Punjab Water Act replaced the colonial-era Easements Act. However, we cannot afford to move at this pace, given the severity of the water crisis. Firstly, the government needs to speed up its agriculture modernization and mechanization policies. Irrigation productivity needs to be boosted, while water management needs to be improved to benefit both the environment and society. However, this cannot be achieved without seamless coordination between the federal and provincial actors. Only 5% of the country’s GDP is generated by the four principal crops (rice, wheat, sugarcane, and cotton) that require 80% of the country’s water resources (GDP). Inefficient water management is expected to cost as much as four percent of GDP or about $12 billion annually.
Secondly, the ambassadorial and bureaucratic must launch a coordinated diplomatic stance on all critical international platforms that urge international players like the World Bank to once-ageing act as a mediator to not only stop the carnage at Kashmir and the abuse of its resources but also to prevent a possible war over water between the two nuclear powers.
Lastly, there is a dire need to restructure Pakistan’s economy, public institutions, and the entire social and political structure. I cannot stress enough the importance of a meritocratic governmental structure. The educated masses of Pakistan must take the responsibility of putting its social and economic engines through an overhaul that can guarantee a progressive Pakistan.
The writer is the Foreign Secretary-General for BRI College, China. He tweets @DrHasnain_javed.