In international politics, modern nation-states act rationally and more so, if they are super, global, or regional powers. Looking at the behaviour of the two South Asian states and regional powers — India and Pakistan — it can be concluded that they are neither rational actors nor responsible powers. The whole region is disturbed. The US is all set to make an exit from Afghanistan in 2014. The Taliban are trying hard to make a return and keep the region further disturbed. Instead of paying heed and trying to meet future challenges in the region, once again, India and Pakistan have immaturely engaged in skirmishes on the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. A verbal spat has also started at the ministerial level. The demands are decades old: Pakistan wants the United Nations to look into the matters of the violation of the ceasefire, while India does not. Of course, the present engagement would not lead to another 1947, 1965 or Kargil, but it may give a jerk to the pace of ongoing bilateral engagements between the two countries.
To ascertain who is responsible for starting the firing at the India-Pakistan border is like which came first — the chicken or the egg. Both blame the other for any crisis. For the present skirmishes, the story carried by Praveen Swamy for The Hindu, dated December 10, 2012, seems logical and truthful. Furthermore, on both sides of the border, there are stakeholders who benefit from the persisting enmity between the two countries. In the past it happened that whenever chances to establish peace were explored, some untoward incidents took place to derail all painstaking and meticulous efforts made by the governments of the two sides. In 1999, after the successful Lahore Declaration by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Mian Nawaz Sharif, Kargil happened. The culprit of that episode was the Pakistani army and a terrorist group called Al-Badr. It took almost four years to normalise bilateral relations. Later, after the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government came into power in 2005 in India, efforts had been made to improve bilateral relations but, in November 2008, the Mumbai mayhem took place on the instructions from some terrorist groups based in Pakistan. Afterwards, it took about two years and a great deal of preparation to remove hurdles and reset the motion of bilateral talks.
In Indian politics, Pakistan plays an important role. Ongoing cross-border firing — which given their decades-old rivalry is a routine affair between India and Pakistan — has been used by the present government to pacify the people who were angered at the government’s attitude over the December 16 gang rape incident in Delhi. It has also stopped the much needed, ongoing debates in the Indian media over steps to empower women and to stop such barbaric incidents from happening. In a nutshell, the UPA spin-doctors have managed the situation well for their government. Then there are groups in India who have always had a problem with the India-Pakistan peace process. The ongoing India-Pakistan peace and Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) must have been bothering many anti-Pakistan hawks in India. The cross-border firings have given a chance to many Indian ‘experts’ on Pakistan to come out from their forced-hibernation. Now they have occupied spaces in the Indian media and are chanting their stale hypothesis: India and Pakistan cannot be friends.
Looking at the graph of the India-Pakistan bilateral relationship, 2012 has been a successful year; many CBMs to improve bilateral relations were declared. A few treaties were also signed to give practical shape to those CBMs. It also seems that there was a closed-door understanding between the leaders of the two countries to put the Kashmir issue on the backburner and step away. This was a positive sign. The two countries agreed to set up the Integrated Check Post (ICP) from where more trucks would be allowed to move across the two borders. The issuance of a larger number of multiple-entry visas to the citizens from the other country was also agreed upon. The two countries agreed to improve bilateral economic ties. One of the examples of growing bonhomie was that at the end of 2012, the Pakistani cricket team played a series against the Indian team in India. Abruptly, after such a good start and positive moves, the gear has been shifted and bilateral relations are back where they were. The reasons for shifting gears are known; also known are their grave results.
To conclude, much blood has been shed in this bilateral enmity with no mutual or even zero-sum pay-offs to either of the two countries. I repeat, as I have also written in the past. Let us have a decade of friendship and then compare the result. If that does not pay — which it certainly would — then there is always an option to return to the antagonistic past. Strategically, tensions and skirmishes will be harmful and provide reasons for the strengthening of radical forces. The Islamic radicals have already done a great deal of damage to Pakistan. If Pakistan faces problems, India cannot save itself from the spillover effects either. Hence, both countries must try to be mature and behave rationally.
The writer is an assistant professor (guest) at the Delhi University, New Delhi. He can be reached at [email protected]