Finance Advisor Shaukat Aziz claimed last week that negotiations with the IMF had finally been completed, implying that the Saudi loan had done the trick, which got everybody glued to the headlines in anticipation of the official announcement. Yet none has come so far. In fact, it has since come to light that a number of problems persist, particularly regarding the SBP amendment Bill 2021, and unless they are sorted out there’s very little chance of the Fund okaying anything in a hurry. That explains why the rupee halted its nine-odd-day rise and fell another one-and-a-half percent in the last two days. The stock market had a fright on Tuesday as well, before recovering just a little on the next day. The reason is the same. Financial markets are not sure anymore which direction the economy is going to take; and more or less everything depends on whether or not the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) can really be revived. Also, considering how things have gone since the government’s finance team flew to Washington to conclude negotiations with the Fund, markets might think twice before trusting the finance ministry or even the state bank in the future. Perhaps the government is going to realise a little late in the day that it should have been more transparent with the public about how the talks were really going, instead of always giving the impression that there was nothing to worry about. That’s not to say that we have missed the bus and there will be no going back to the bailout facility. In fact, a complete rollback of the program at this point is very unlikely. What remains to be seen is just how stiff the agreement for the rest of it is going to be. Everybody had hoped, seeing the expansionary budget, that the new finance minister meant what he said when he claimed that he would get the Fund to tone down its demands. Now it’s becoming clearer by the day that the IMF is in no mood to give too much space. Either way, the best way to proceed, and minimise trauma, is to be completely transparent about all negotiations. *