Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) recent gathering in Quetta city has generated a debate about the party’s prospects in Balochistan. Before assessing PTI’s chances, it is imperative to understand the contemporary political landscape in Balochistan.Three types of political parties populate political stage in the restive province: religious parties, state wide parties and ethno-nationalist parties. The most influential religious party in Balochistan is the JUI-F. The party draws its support mainly from lower social classes and the non-professional middle class. The former category primarily includes a tiny but loyal group of students and teachers of madaris and primary school teachers in rural areas. These people constitute the “core group” of the party and are responsible for managing the party’s organizational affairs at local levels. The latter category refers to the more traditional and conservative segment of middle class ie small-scale merchants, landholders and agriculturists. Ethno-nationalist parties have historically remained a key political player in Balochistan. Currently, the most popular ethno-nationalist parties are the National Party (NP), Balochistan National Party (BNP) and the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP). Professional middle class including university students, doctors and teachers form the core support group of these parties, performing the vital functions of grass-roots organization, recruitment and mobilization. While educated middle class dominates the rank and file, traditional elites have historically had an over-proportionate presence at the top leadership positions. This especially holds true for ethnic parties in the Baloch region, where Sardari system is more deeply entrenched compared to the Pakhtun regions of Balochistan. The case of statewide parties in Balochistan is a rather interesting one. Despite having ruled the province on multiple occasions, these parties, namely the PML-N, PPP, PML-Q, have negligible organisational presence at the grassroots level. They have rarely been able to cultivate ideational support among common masses or establish a core group of supporters. Instead, they have almost always relied on the evergreen tribal chieftains who tend to have a personalised and narrow voter base and often enjoy the support of the military establishment. Most of these tribal chieftains are political turncoats who change political loyalties every five to ten years. PTI should learn from the experience of other parties.Reliance on tribal chieftains, who are often backed by the military establishment, and pursuit of a narrow corruption-centric agenda won’t take it too far In potential terms, the PTI does stand a chance in Balochistan. There is a tiny but growing middle class in Balochistan that the PTI can tap on to. Currently, the majority of this class has political loyalties with ethno-nationalist parties in the province. This class, especially the educated and professional segment, is very reluctant to support either the JUI-F or statewide parties. In other words, this class often faces Hobson’s choice in that the only option on the offer is nationalist parties. They don’t have an alternative in case they become disillusioned with nationalist parties. PTI has the potential to be the alternative political force that the middle class can turn to in such situations. It demonstrated a glimpse of this in the recent by-election for the Balochistan assembly seat of Ziarat, which had fallen vacant following the demise of sitting legislator Gul Muhammad Dummarh of JUI-F. The by-polls were expected to be a contest mainly between JUI-F and PkMAP. However, in a rather surprising development, PTI’s candidate bagged the second higher number of votes and lost by a very narrow margin to the JUI-F candidate, who was the son of the deceased legislator and was therefore riding a sympathy wave. PTI’s performance was remarkable when considered against the fact that its candidate didn’t receive any significant support either from the provincial or central party leadership. In contrast, both PkMAP and JUI-F went into the polls with their full might. Whether the PTI can harness its electoral potential, however, depends on how it plays its cards in Balochistan. In this regard, two factors will be critical. First, PTI will have to weave the issues of Balochistan into its political narrative in order to be able to relate to people. Although PTI’s narrative on corruption does resonate with a significant segment of the population, it isn’t Balochistan’s only problem. There are other serious issues such as enforced disappearances, military’s over-bearing presence and repressive tactics, exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources, and water shortage. Imran will have to speak about these issues if he wants to be taken seriously. His current narrative is unlikely to attract a large number of voters, especially in the Baloch regions. His obliviousness to the province’s context was on stark display in his recent rally where he kept harping on about the PM in the backdrop of the Panamagate and Dawn Leaks without once discussing any of Balochistan’s issues such as conflict, water crisis, sense of alienation etc. Secondly, PTI’s chances depend on the strength of its organizational presence at the grass-roots level. Currently, it is following in the footsteps of other statewide parties. Imran Khan unceremoniously removed the elected leader of PTI Balochistan chapter and replaced him with the Baloch Sardar, Yaar Mohammad Rind who had just joined the party. The appointment of Rind — a former member of PML-Q and a minister during Musharraf’s era — sent shockwaves among diehard party workers. The adverse impact of Rind’s appointment can already be observed. The party is facing internal cracks and divisions. Just recently, Rind allegedly sent armed men to physically beat his own party colleague for raising voice against his leadership. PTI should learn lessons from other statewide parties. Reliance on tribal chieftains, who are often backed by the military establishment and pursuit of a narrow corruption-centric agenda wouldn’t take it too far. It needs to completely rethink its current strategy and narrative if it wants to cultivate a loyal and sustainable support base. The writer is a public policy graduate from University of Oxford