United States President Joe Biden is swiftly fulfilling the political promises made during his election campaign. There has been no de-linking of guarantees, regardless of whether these were politically motivated to win seats from traditional Republican strongholds. In the last two weeks alone, Biden has fulfilled three pledges of global significance. Certainly, the decision to return to the 2015 Paris Agreement has been welcomed across the board, especially with the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) scheduled for the end of the year. The realisation of two other pledges have fared less well.
The most important centres on the NATO and US troop pullout from Afghanistan, though there is still no final roadmap for sustainable peace. The sticking point is the revised timetable of September 11, 2021 for complete withdrawal. The Taliban argue that the bilateral agreement signed with the previous administration set May 1 as the exit deadline and are therefore not bound by this new agreement. In fact, the group attacked and overran an Afghan army base in the southeastern Ghazni province on Saturday, capturing dozens of soldiers and killing several others. The day before, President Ashraf Ghani blamed the Taliban for a car blast that occurred in a residential area south of Kabul that left 21 dead and 91 injured. This recent surge in violence is something that all stakeholders feared from the offset and now there are genuine concerns that this signals a new era of the Talibanisation of Afghanistan. If this proves true, the gains of the last two decades will have been laid to waste. All of which begs the question as to whether troop withdrawal is being done in haste to charm the Taliban or if it represents part of a hidden strategic agenda for the region? This part of the story needs to be discussed at length. Maybe next time.
Yet the biggest misstep of Biden’s first 100 days in office is the US official recognition of the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman troops during the First World War, as claimed by Yerevan. Despite being the first US president to do have done so – the decision was neither made overnight nor was it based on electoral opportunism. Rather, this is the result of sustained lobbying by the Armenians. In the week leading up to this declaration, 100 members of Congress signed a bipartisan letter, circulated by the Armenian Caucus leadership, urging Biden to do the needful. Moreover, the president had long been a staunch supporter of Armenian Genocide affirmation. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan welcomed “the US unwavering commitment to protecting human rights and universal values”. US-based Armenian advocacy group, the Armenian Assembly of America also termed it “a watershed moment in US history”.
Turkey has largely acknowledged the deaths of Armenians while steadfastly denying that the killings were systematically orchestrated. Not only has Ankara rejected Biden’s declaration – analysts are describing the move as politically motivated to pressure NATO ally Turkey over independent policy decisions
Naturally, Turkey is not happy. The country has largely acknowledged the deaths of some 300,000 Armenians while steadfastly denying that the killings were systematically orchestrated. Indeed, Ankara rejected Biden’s announcement as being without “any scholarly and legal basis” and asserted that the events did not meet the legal requirements of international law to be considered genocide. Analysts have described the US move as being politically motivated to pressure NATO ally Turkey over independent policy decisions. These include: Ankara raising its voice against the so-called blasphemous actions by the US and the West; promoting and propagating the Islamic values and traditions of the Ottoman Empire globally; and gradually transforming the country from a secular state into an Islamic one.
Elsewhere, the bilateral relationship has been strained due to Turkey’s increasingly close ties to Russia and China, both of which threaten traditional hegemony. Ankara’s purchasing of Russia’s S-400 air defence system represents one such blip. This point was underscored by Biden who, when informing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Armenian genocide decision, stressed his interest in building “a constructive bilateral relationship with expanded areas of cooperation and effective management of disagreements”. Well played!
The two presidents also agreed to hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit in June. So, Turkey has about a two-month window of opportunity in which to lobby Biden to reverse his ‘symbolic decision’ on the genocide question or, at least, ensure its impact is defused. The Muslim leadership and independent media will likely stand united against the US decision to cool pressure that is currently mounting on Turkey; although Pakistan, the only nation not to recognise Armenian independence, stands alone in throwing support behind Ankara. In addition, an urgent counter-narrative must be developed and disseminated to peacefully confront statements made by the US, the EU and the UN that hurt Muslim sentiments and promote religious prejudices. Turkey, for its part, needs to have more dynamic and active ambassadors leading from the front to mobilise political and diplomatic support from their respective stations through advocacy, media and communication interventions. It is hoped that the Turkish Embassy in Islamabad will wake up, too.
The writer is a freelance journalist and broadcaster, Director Devcom-Pakistan, an Islamabad-based policy advocacy and outreach think tank. His can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @EmmayeSyed