As usual American president Donald Trump provided a lot of eye catching stuff in recent couple of days. Besides frequently striking at rival candidate in presidential campaign Joe Biden, he tweeted about return of troops from Afghanistan by this Christmas. Timing of this casual Trump style tweet on a very important matter means a lot. There are few sensitive inter-connected factors which can neither be neglected nor be openly dissected to explore the hidden intents of stake holders. First, Washington’s point man for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, is busy in hectic shuttle diplomacy and seen visiting Kabul, Dushanbe, Delhi, Doha and Islamabad. He was in Pakistan twice this month and also met COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa during last tour.This diplomatic vigor reflects the true American desperation to step out of nineteen years long Afghan campaign. Second, the grand dialogue process has not yet formally started despite initial fanfare last month. The Taliban and rest of the Afghan representatives including Kabul government are still debating upon future governance mechanism.
Despite many Indian backed provocative moves on western borders, Pakistan has adopted a principled stance to support the restoration of peace process by engaging all quarters of Afghan society
Choice of sharia jurisprudence including personal laws for Shias vis-a vis religious minorities and Taliban’s insistence to accept February peace deal with US as key document to begin with dialogues are the two main unresolved points. Third, Kabul government’s representatives are busy at three fronts in the back drop of ongoing Doha dialogues. Head of national reconciliation council Abdullah Abdullah has started visiting important stakeholders ie Pakistan, India, China, Turkey and neighboring Central Asian states. President Ashraf Ghani also made a trajectory to Qatar after attending royal funeral at Kuwait. With these two high profile tours, Kabul government representatives are formally engaged in Doha dialogues and endeavoring to flatten the differences on agenda setting.Fourth, Taliban delegation showed no interest in meeting with President Ashraf Ghani during his Doha tour which took place on the invitation of Qatari Emir. Right from the outset, Taliban have pressed to project their identity as sole stake holder of Afghanistan. Taliban’s Peace deal with the US earlier this year and recent appearance in Doha dialogues against rest of the players are two significant endorsements of their dominance in Afghan arena. Fifth, there is an alarming surge in violence across the Afghanistan and rivals are blaming each other for the loss of men and material. Deadly clashes between Afghan forces and militants took many precious lives. Reportedly, few airstrikes by Afghan forces struck non-militant civilians. Finding out the real perpetrators of these recent violent strikes or fixing the exact responsibility is not easy. Fifth, it is obvious that Abdullah and Ghani, despite being part of Kabul government, have serious conflict of the interests. This division will keep weakening the position of the Kabul government in all phases of dialogues. Peace spoiler forces find great maneuvering space in this divide of the Kabul government. Sixth, Pakistan’s positive rolein peace process has once again emerged significantly as proved with visits of Taliban delegation, Abdullah Abdullah and Zalmay Khalilzad. This stabilizing role has brought Pakistan in the cross hair of peace spoiler forces. Seventh, prolonged Afghan crisis cannot be delinked with existing tug of war between global players. Reshaping of alliances and resetting of objectives in the region have deep impact on the situation unpredictably evolving in Afghanistan.Out of so many aspects,above sevenfactors need to be kept in focus while analyzing various complex scenarios in Afghanistan. Pakistan has openly put its all weight in favor of peace and stability. PM’s article published in Washington Post was a timely wake up call to the international community and an effective reminder to US about the serious consequences of hasty or unplanned troops’ withdrawal. Two major victims of four decades long crisis, Afghanistan and Pakistan, need a unified strategy to break the vicious cycle of unrest and violence. Zalmay Khalilzad is repeatedly talking about a Pak-Afghan sideagreement to strengthen the ongoing peace process. Gulf of mistrust between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been persistently exploited by the peace spoiling forces. This is about time to expose the sponsors of hardcore terrorists who played havoc with the peace of Afghanistan and Pakistan. New Delhi’s obsession to convert Afghanistan in a hub of anti-Pak proxies is as old as the partition of 1947. Despite many Indian backed provocative moves on western borders, Pakistan has adopted a principled stance to support the restoration of peace process by engaging all quarters of Afghan society. Recent visit of Abdullah Abdullah with an admirable positive tone clearly reflects rising realization in Kabul about Pakistan’s role, sacrifices and genuine intent. Trump’s tweet about troops withdrawal is being interpreted as an election stunt to gain public support. A nineteen years long campaign worth $ 975 billion with 2400 dead and 20000 injured soldiers needs to be wrapped up in an orderly manner. Afghanistan and Pakistan paid a heavy price of past hasty disappearance of US from the same arena. Contentious issues are still unresolved. Deadlock on agenda setting for Doha dialogues and end of violence are obviously the most disturbing areas. While striving hard for the peace, Pakistan is also concerned about presence of hardcore terrorist outfits and splinter groups on afghan soil under Indian umbrella. A hasty US withdrawal, divided Kabul government, Indian sponsored proxies vis-a vis multiple terrorist groups on Afghan soil and stalled dialogue process are not good omens for the entire region.
Writer is a freelance and can be reached at sikandarnoorani @yahoo.com