Pakistan has got multiple interconnected issues at internal and external fronts impacting deeply on national stability. On western front, the solidity of Afghan unrest has not yet started melting down properly!
Proxies, intruding terrorists, millions of refugees and uncontrollable smuggling are few of the many irritants choking the normal functioning of life on either side of the border. Fallouts of foreign sponsored Afghan instability proved too complex for Pakistan to sustain! With a shattered economy and polarized society, Pakistan has done much more than its obligations and faced unmanageable consequences for being reliably supportive towards its next door neighbor in stormy seasons.
On Eastern side, India is turning extremely violent towards Pakistan with every passing day. Extraordinary provocative 5th August conversion of IOK in Indian union territory, surge in state sponsored atrocities against Kashmiri masses and continued Ceasefire Violations at LoC are creating multiplying negative impacts on regional peace.
On Eastern side, India is turning extremely violent towards Pakistan with every passing day. Extraordinary provocative 5th August conversion of IOK in Indian union territory, surge in state sponsored atrocities against Kashmiri masses and continued Ceasefire Violations at LoC are creating multiplying negative impacts on regional peace
Balancing the relations with China and the USA requires a cautiously thought-out diplomatic strategy. Regional bindings and economic compulsions demand vigilant commitment with the CPEC and US-led Afghan peace process. Stepping out from any of these important episodes would cost Pakistan heavily on many accounts. Dialogue tables set for rival groups in Afghanistan may not fetch desired results as per estimated time lines but deviation from set course would surely prove catastrophic.
Cut throat context between regional and global players for extraction of maximum benefits from war ridden territories may cost more blood of local stakeholders. The US, Russia, China, India and Iran have their own reasons to remain relevant with Afghanistan. In contrast, Afghanistan and Pakistan being two victims of circumstances, are desperately striving to restore normalcy and peace.
On internal front, many serious problems being faced by Pakistan like terrorism, activism of nationalist separatist militants, dubious battering against state pillars and polarizing tendencies have deep roots across the border. Starting from Khal Bhoshan to Muhammad Anwar of MQM London, every disclosure leads to Indian connection. How can Pakistan contribute to the US led Afghan peace process while India continues playing proxy games against the former? Obviously, the US has to take some definite position on the peace spoiling role of its regional strategic ally India. The US appreciably acknowledges Pakistan’s efforts for peace but on account of Indian coercive role a clearer stance from Washington is always missing. Trump’s India tour in February this year and a costly arms deal was actually an informal appointment of India as US’ policeman in South Asia. This is an understandable American arrangement to contain Chinese dragons in the South Asian region lest it enters the forbidden regions of Europe, Australia and Middle East. This opinion does carry considerable weight that the dragon has already stepped in those areas which matter a lot to the sole superpower.
Bloody brawl between Indian and Chinese soldiers at Himalayan heights of Ladakh may prove an initial unfolding of a larger US game plan. Having mutually agreed upon unarmed surveillance of the disputed LAC for decades, why did the brawl cost the lives of 20 soldiers in India? Both China and India have come up with their side of the story! However, the contradictory statement of PM Modi is enough to solve the riddle of another failed military misadventure on part of Indian army. Indian overstepping in the form of unilateral annexation of Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu have compelled China to assess the far reaching impact of this unwise move on CPEC and BRI.
There are more than enough logical reasons to doubt the intent of New Delhi! In the post 5th August scenario, many responsible top officials are regularly threatening to capture AJK through military attack. Elevation of ex-Army Chief General Bapin Rawat to the newly created appointment of Chief of Defence Staff with a mandate of creating independent theatre commands are clear indicators of Indian expansionist designs.
When the world is seeing a shift of global leadership to Beijing amid pandemic, India has opted to side with the US. This is neither good for the region nor for India itself. This is particularly not good for Pakistan in the context of Kashmir, CPEC and Afghan peace process. India cannot beat China! It cannot even beat Pakistan! But it has enormous potential to spoil the peace, disrupt the economic progress, sponsor the terrorism and oppress the innocents with military might. Pakistan can fight a defensive war with India at any moment with existing military resources! But this should not be enough to feel safe and satisfied.
There should be more serious deliberations to avert a war with ultra-ambitious and over-charged India. Unlike India, absolute annihilation of the opponent has never been the ultimate objective of Pakistan. Peace, not war, is going to be the real test of statesmanship in these troubling times. People of Kashmir, Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan do not deserve a blood soaked future as conceived by the fascist Modi cult. In addition to India and Pakistan, now China has also stepped in the arena as an active stakeholder of the Kashmir dispute. New Delhi has successfully shaped up a greater conflict by igniting the new fire from the ashes of old regional disputes between South Asian nuclear powers. A wider diplomatic campaign must be launched to build an effective alliance against likely spread of a complex war in the region.
(Writer is a freelance and can be reached at [email protected])