Lockdown remains a debated issue in Pakistan. Imran Khan-led federal government disagrees with the provincial governments with the former arguing vulnerability of the below poverty population to the economic impacts of the lockdown. I choose to analyse whether lockdown is the best strategy to contain the pandemic, COVID-19, in Pakistan. I do this keeping aside the economic impacts of the lockdown strategy on the poor at the moment.
I argue that the kind of lockdown that has been implemented in Pakistan was not the optimal strategy for containing the COVID-19. The ground realities of Pakistan are different from China and most of the developed countries.
Let us consider the often quoted arguments in favour of the lockdown. Firstly, China has almost overcome the pandemic with the complete lockdown. Most developed countries like Italy, Spain and the United States have enforced lockdown. Justified on their merit for a complete lockdown in the above countries, Pakistan, thank God and has until April 1, 2020, less than one third (29%) local transmission cases of COVID-19 in 35 days since February 26, 2020, the day the first case was reported. Majority of the affected people (71%) travelled from outside, mainly from Iran.
Pakistan did not have thousands of cases to require lockdown as it is the case in the United States of America, Italy, Spain and China
Pakistan did not have thousands of cases to require lockdown as it is the case in the United States of America, Italy, Spain and China. If a country housed several thousand coronavirus patients and there is no means to track and confine the movement of a large number of people, lockdown would be warranted. We just had few hundreds of cases to begin with and that too from definite, identified, known and visible source – pilgrims from Iran and some from Saudi Arabia and other countries.
A straight forward step was not to waste energy and resources in the blanket lockdown halting general movement of goods and people and closing businesses and offices. The first wise response would have been to set up decent quarantine facilities and arrange COIVD-19 testing. Furthermore, the government was to ensure proper medical protective gear for the paramedical staff and other personnel dealing with the quarantined people. Secondly, the government should have set up isolation wards, perhaps designate hospitals, for the treatment of coronavirus patients in the outskirts of nearby towns. The government would not allow corona patients inside towns until recovered.
One could argue that lockdown was essential since the government did not enforce strict quarantine measures in the start and let suspected pilgrims and visitors walk in. Assuming this was the case, Pakistani law enforcement agencies are sufficiently resourced and trained through personnel and technological outreach such as geofencing to track a few hundred people.
In the last few days, the government has, perhaps, learnt from its mistakes and sealed areas where suspected patients were believed to socialise at various places in the country. These are wise steps and are expected to contain the pandemic. If this targeted and selective lockdown would be implemented, the government could look after the poor, marginalised and vulnerable segments of the population through support in cash and kind. With the second week in the lockdown in major cities of the country, the provincial movements need to critically think whether lockdown is needed and if so then why?
Pakistan needed and still needs a calibrated and targeted strategy focused on testing, tracing, treating and quarantining to contain the pandemic. The current anti-corona strategy has unnecessarily diluted the much-needed state energy and resources. The state needs to disembark from the blanket lockdown bandwagon as soon as possible and better concentrate on TTTQ.
The writes on social and economic policy issues. He can be reached at [email protected].