The recent tension between the US and Iran has a rich background. It seems to be an episode of a series of the worsening situation in the Middle East, which may leave a global impact. Japan may not be an exception.
2019 was important for bilateral relations between Japan and Iran. Both countries established diplomatic relations in 1929/30. The 90th anniversary of these diplomatic relations was celebrated in 2019.
A summit meeting between Iran and Japan took place on September 24, 2019, in New York on the sidelines of the session of General Assembly. Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, and Iranian President, Hasan Rouhani, attended the session.
The Japanese leader desired Iran to play a role in easing tension and stabilising regional peace. The Iranian leader, meanwhile, expressed his country’s willingness and asked for Japanese cooperation to cope with the situation. PM Abe stated that the safety of navigation in the Middle Eastern waters is important for his country as it fulfils 80 per cent of its oil requirements from the regional countries.
Three months later, Iranian President paid an official visit to Japan on December 20, 2019. He was the first Iranian president who had visited Japan after 19 years. The Nuclear Deal of 2015 and bilateral relations were on the agenda of the summit.
President Rouhani asked for Japan’s role in assisting Middle Eastern countries in the wake of the US sanctions. According to media reports, Japan asked Iran for the implementation of the deal.
The latest US strike on Iranian General Suleimani and subsequent Iran’s targetting of the US bases in Iraq has created tension in regional and global affairs. Some countries have decided to temporarily withdraw their forces from Iraq. The US has also shifted its forces from the bases.
Japan must be satisfied with the scenario as the attacks took place in Iraq and for the time being, chances of war remain dismal. Thus, oil navigation in the region may remain intact. And it may be big good news for Japan that this time, Arab countries are not in the imbroglio.
In case the Persian Gulf and Strait of ` got affected as Arab countries came forward in the tension, a difficult situation may be created for Japan
In the 1970s, oil embargo by the Arab countries against the US caused an oil shock for Japan. The situation was eased for Japan and the oil supply restarted.
In case the tension escalated this time and the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz got affected as Arab countries came forward in the tension, a difficult situation may be created for Japan. However, it seems Arab countries also look divided this time.
US President Donald Trump, in his brief address, on January 8, 2020, stated that the US is number one oil and gas producer in the world. He also declared that sanctions would be tightened against Iran. It means an oil blockage in the region of the Middle East may not affect the US this time. But a question arises that how will the US rescue its allies like Japan in such a scenario.
According to one source, Japanese Chief Cabinet Spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, stated, “Government will coordinate with the related governments to collect intelligence while we ensure the safety of Japanese citizens in the region. Japan will also urge all related nations to do their utmost diplomatic effort to improve the relations.”
It has also been reported that Japan is going to deploy warships for the safety of oil tankers and Japanese vessels. It may be an indication that Japan will protect its interests within its territory and also in international waters.
Japanese government’s decision is a continuity of its policy of self-defence. Japan has raised a Self-Defence Force, equipped with latest arms and ammunition, for its defence. The force is not mandated for offensive purposes. However, little change was witnessed in 1992, when Japan sent its forces to Cambodia as a part of the United Nations Peace Keeping Forces. It was the first time when Japanese forces were stationed abroad.
Japan may emphasise on easing tension in the region to protect its interests. However, it depends upon the behaviour of the US and Iran to shape the affairs. For the time being, it appears that both are restraining from indulging in direct war.
The writer is an author and has a doctorate in Political Science