We enter 2020 with both the global diplomatic and economic fronts dangerously engaged and completely charged. Megalomaniacs stoking fears of a military confrontation by tweaking geopolitics, protectionists bent on raising a tariff wall and drawing us near to a recession, and technology ever dynamic with its uncanny ascendancy creepingin every facet of life.
The Middle East is strewn with its characteristic unrest and tumult. Latin America, as it always seems to be, is nurturing some incipient revolutions. From feminism to capitalism, solipsistic interpretations of suchand other concepts dot the world of academia.This is a conjunction, almost paradoxical in its nature, where we feel both a sense of excitement and deja vu.
The US and China have just reached a Phase One agreement, ephemeral in nature and rather delusional in its expectations. We will see that it will, if not fall apart, be arrested merely in documents while in reality the trade war will continue. What will continue to define international relations are the two ‘deals’, the one I just mentioned, and the second is the Iranian deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), repealed by Donald Trump. Iran continues to hold the centre stage in geopolitics of the Middle East, and what happens here will decide the fate of the rest of the region: Kurds, Syria, Turkey boundary issues, balance of power vis-à-vis the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and oil prices. The relevance and significance are immense.
We are in one of those phases where globalisation is facing flak, partially justified and partially unjust. There are two trends emanating from this phenomenon. The first is the rise of rabble rousers; the second, consequently, is a growing protectionist mania. Refugee crisis when combined with the above leads to men throwing acid on foreigners or women getting beaten/harassed in other countries. This xenophobia is a by-product of both sybaritic politics and economic mismanagement. We may expect that things will not get better at this front until we try.
Coming to South Asia, two neighbours, with one of them being shamelessly noisy, dot the headlines. With more than eight million people under lockdown and one of the worst communication/internet blackout in modern history, India is making a travesty of being the largest democracy of the world. Fascist policies, discriminatory injunctions and a government that believes in racial superiority in place are a classic recipe for long term unrest. The countries of Pakistan and India reached the brink of war; both have nuclear arsenal, and the demographic heft in this contiguous region should be a cause of concern for the international community.
But as we have learned from history, for instance, during the Japanese invasion in China, the United Nations’ conferences are merely lip service to its raison d’tre.The Security Council’s meetings are mere words bereft of any meaning.And the protests and calumny from the international community, as little as it already is, will not help those eight million human beings enduring hell-ish conditions.
5G is going to be the new uranium, data the new oil. This technology will change the way we live, according to experts
The world works in a different way, that is to say, in a crude, cruel way. Power reigns supreme. Realpolitik is the only reality. Despite that, I never endorse war and still believe in humanity. So South Asia is a cauldron boiling with emotions of nationalism, the pressure keeps building, and we all need to make it stop before it explodes into an all-out war.
China has always been in the news for both good and bad reasons. Its economy is facing little headwinds due to the trade war ,but entering 2020 with a new agreement, we may expect healthy economic indicators coming from China. Its diplomatic prowess combined with the technological superiority in many fieldsmakes confrontation with the US, in one way or the other, quite likely. However, reports regarding Uighurs and their treatment in detention centres can hurt China’s recently won somewhatinternational acceptance. I believe China and the US are already in a Thucydides Trap-notin the conventional sense as back then there was no 5G-butin a modern way. Expect more noise on this front.
5G is going to be the new uranium, data the new oil. This technology will change the way we live, according to experts. The tech-savvy, sophisticated nomenclature, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), driver-less cars and military applications, will all depend on 5G internet. With billions of dollars filling the coffers of the countries taking advantage of this technology, it might decide a country’s economic future and therefore its diplomatic influence.
But that is for the developed world. We here are still in love with old ideas, customs, habits, tools, techniques and mindset. Here at Pakistan we need, like many other countries, a change in the way we do things. Rather we may consider going a step back: to change the way in which we perceive things.Besides improved technology for our textiles, a new way of governance, an East Asian Development model and a telescopic focus on human development, I feel that we all should learn arts and humanities, and it is a dire need that we do so.
There is too much violence, too little tolerance, too much self-concocted, delusional ideas, too little creativity, too much hatred, very little love. We need training and amongst all spheres, what needs our attention the most are basic values of love, respect and equality.
May we all have a successful, peaceful New Year.
The writer is an economic and geopolitical analyst