The abrogation of Article 370 and 35-A of Indian constitution that had acknowledged the special status of Indian occupied Kashmir and its aftermath had kept the Afghan Peace Process little out of focus by the Pakistani media till US President Donald Trump on 8th September, Saturday night revealed that he had scrapped a secret meeting at Camp David with the Taliban and Afghan leaders, scuttling hopes to secure a deal to end the 18-year long war. The deal reportedly came together and fell apart over the course of about a week, but the final straw was a deadly attack in Kabul on Thursday that killed 12 people, including an American soldier (reported to be a General by media). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took to the airwaves on Sunday, defending the planned meeting on all five morning shows. But he acknowledged that the talks are dead “for the time being,” noting that Trump had recalled Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation. The decision to host Taliban leaders at the presidential retreat in Maryland exposed the deep divisions among Trump’s advisers. Trump himself appears to have been the driving force behind the deal, with National Security Adviser John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence opposed. The U.S. administration and the Taliban left the door open for a resumption of talks, but the scrapped meeting raises serious questions about the prospects for a peace agreement. In the meantime, Afghans are bracing for a bloody prelude to national elections slated for 28th September, 2019. Meanwhile, the Taliban said the cancelled meeting would lead to more American deaths in Afghanistan, and if there was a sense that the Taliban were holding back, now they have more of an incentive to incite violence.
For Pakistan, an impregnable alliance with Turkey, Malaysia and Iran with or without China is call of the day that leadership needs to look into
Since America has already lost around 2400 soldiers in 18 years long conflict in Afghanistan, therefore the given reason for pausing the dialogue process sounds unconvincing and many analysts interpret it as prevalence of American establishment’s stand point over White House led efforts to succeed in bringing peace to Afghanistan through dialogue with Taliban. It is to be noted that US special envoy Khalilzad, after nine rounds of talk in almost as many months was about to sign an agreement ensuring commitments by Taliban for ensuring that Afghan soil would not be allowed to be used by any terrorist organisation like Al-Qaida or Islamic State, indulge in dialogue with sitting Afghan Government for working out a political path and phased withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan commencing with vacation of five military bases and pulling out around 5000 troops out of 14000 in the next four months. However, Taliban did not agree to lose their considered leverage of militancy.
Interestingly, during the same 48 hours, holding of trilateral Foreign Ministers level meeting in Islamabad by China, Pakistan and Afghanistan supporting political solution based on five points agenda with focus on China led economic prong in Afghanistan most probably under overall Belt and Road Initiative spirit, followed on its heels, a visit by US Commander CENTCOM and meetings with Military Leadership in Pakistan with focus on Afghanistan and a mention of Kashmir provide some indications of big players making adjustments with regards to the great game being played in the region for ultimate geo-strategic and geo-economic interests. Since few months ago Pakistan was entrusted with the crucial lead role by the three big players i.e. USA, China and Russia after a Quadrilateral meeting and in the backdrop of Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to USA, to bring Taliban to the dialogue table with America followed by incumbent American and Indian supported Afghan Government, both India and Afghan Government were presumably upset and felt left out of the game, hence they were prone to throw all available spanners in the smoothly proceeding Afghan peace process in order to undermine Pakistan’s sincere efforts and outwit US president Trump as well as scuttle his Ambassador Khalilzad’s hectic shuttle diplomacy, involving grueling nine months long dialogue with Taliban, Afghan Government, India and other regional stakeholders.
Therefore, with few days left before presidential elections in Afghanistan, incumbent Afghan president may be feeling confidently happy with bright prospects for winning yet another presidential term by misusing available government machinery at his disposal and by keeping Taliban out of the game, thus convincing India and other stakeholders (opposed to peace through dialogue with Taliban) that he would be able to continue to serve their purpose; imprudently disregarding Taliban reaction, capabilities and other unhealthy efforts at play by numerous regional and extra regional as well as internal Afghan players mostly from or aligned with former Northern Alliance, which may include balkanization of Afghanistan on ethnic basis; however, none is without obvious extreme bloodshed risking peace in the whole region. India as leading spoiler and as consequential beneficiary of turmoil in Afghanistan remains gleeful by creating and exploiting multi-fronts for Pakistan, finally declaring Indian Occupied Kashmir as integral part of India shaming UN Security Council, General Assembly, Human Rights Council and Amnesty International; ignoring possibility of greater confrontation with Pakistan and even dangerously exposing her own internal fault lines in the face of RSS extremist and fascist Hindutva doctrine unleashed by Modi led BJP regime in India. Therefore, Pakistan once again finds itself in a catch 22 situation due to the perils highlighted in earlier published pieces, “Pitfalls of being a cat’s paw” dated 27th and 28th August, “PM’s USA Visit: Need to be cautiously optimistic” dated 28 July, and “Afghanistan peace process remains sluggish” dated 24th June,2019.
While Kashmir being jugular vein should remain Pakistan’s top national priority; nevertheless, sustainable peace in Afghanistan through an Afghan led peace process as per agreed upon terms and conditions by USA, China, Russia and Pakistan should be followed through as a common and joint responsibility and Pakistan must not once again become a cat’s paw or a punching bag for any power at all. The prime condition by Pakistan for any more facilitation role in Afghanistan has to be blunt exclusion of Indian nefarious presence and clandestine manoeuvres; besides promised positive role by P5 in UN Security Council as was done for East Timor in 2002. For Pakistan, an impregnable alliance with Turkey, Malaysia and Iran with or without China is call of the day that leadership needs to look into. Let’s call spade a spade and be a Tipu Sultan in actions rather than in just words.
The writer SI (M) is a retired senior Army officer with rich experience in International relations, diplomacy and analysis of geo-strategic issues