All war theories revolve around the concept of jus bellum (just war doctrine) or at the most, jus ad bellum (right to war) which is a set of criteria to be established before engaging in war.
India has lost the sense of both of these concepts. It is waging war against the people, violating every speck of basic human rights. Unwittingly or illwittingly heading towards probably the most unjust war in the recent human history. After the death of K. Subramanim and his ilk, the strategic elite of India is probably a coterie of saffron tinged people who are only good at the art and science of destruction, hatred, deceit, newspeak and disinformation.
In subcontinent due to this saber rattling and hegemonic designs by India, the deterrence theory itself is going to be the first causality. Strategic equilibrium maintained through diminished security dilemmas are challenged by Indians, as asymmetry in conduct and posture is increasing, nuclear threshold is declining by every passing day, and there is an imminent threat of both deterrence failure and war.
India now lives in a false allure of escalation dominance, not knowing that nuclear escalation is always a binary and there is no such thing as limited nuclear options, at least not for now.
Asymmetric stakes are stoking the simmering fire to a gigantic flash point, the nuclear flash point. Boasting the review of No First Use is nothing but Dr Strange Love’s nuclear brinks man ship.
Modi as the populist illiberal leader is trying to play with the basic DNA of both the subhuman humans of Alt-right and the history as well
India thinks that it controls the escalation ladder. The players of Indian chess game with their left thumps on nuclear button and right spared for the hand shake is the most Machiavellian image what world can believe to have watched.
Probably they are taking Herman Kahn’s escalation ladder as the sure hinge domestic ladder to spread chillies on the roof for Indian pickle.
Sub-continent is altogether a different ball game due to historicism of enmity, mistrust and saffronic animosity.
The rungs of escalation are traversed with a strange mechanics, seen nowhere else and neither in history of warfare. Sub crisis maneuvering does not exist in sub-continent; you are already eye-ball to eye ball. Again the stage of dramatic military confrontation is reached sooner than one expects.
India has already traversed the middle rung of nuclear ultimatums with the record breaking time span of 48 hours since the united nations security council meeting on Indian(un) constitutional shenanigans regarding Article 370 and 35A concerning the Kashmir.
The abolishing of special status articles of Indian constitution is being taken as the winning and culminating stage of thirty years war in Kashmir starting from 1989 to 2019 and according to them they have reached their westphalia , vow, what a Post Westphalia delusion.
Everything around this notion is based on fake news, disinformation and deceit, amongst the siren songs of Kashmir.
Kashmir is famous world over for its saffron. Its saffron crop is dying due to water shortages and climate change, ironically another crop of saffornic hindu ethno-nationalists is sprouting as a result of overall. Saffornisation of public sphere in India. The beautiful and rhythmic rouf dance is being converted into death tangos of the innocents.
Modi as the populist illiberal leader is trying to play with the basic DNA of both the subhuman humans of Alt-right and the history as well.
Ultra nationalism is a precursor to fascism for which one require to invent history and its historical monuments. The 1500 confederate monuments of American civil war and their coming into being is the only lesson of history which Mr Modi has learnt, that iswhy he is enslaving people and their thoughts.
Measures taken to control the erstwhile population of Indian held Kashmir is an interesting leaf from the script of chankiya. Firstly the Kashmir assembly was politically ousted by BJP and President rule was enforced in June. This was part of plan, as constitutionally any such amendment could not be tabled if it was not already approved by the Jammu and Kashmir assembly. The hoax of Pakistani mines was raised at the occasion of hindu yatra, ordering all tourists and yatris to leave. Earlier the number of troops was increased to 8 lakh. Alt-right hindu fundamentalists of RSS are tasked to be part of hindu pundits resettlement on one hand and the mass killing of anybody who resists or questions anything, anywhere.
Ambani is spear heading the economic-cum-demographic offensive by unfurling a massive investment in property, industrial infra structure and resettlement of over 20,000 hindu pundits in and around Srinagar as a first step.
To overland this operation four people are directly teamed up, the national security advisor, Ajit doval, the Indian army chief, Gen Bipin Rawal (who is going to be CDS soon). The new chief of RAW, Samant Goel and the recently promoted Chief of IB, Arvind Kumar, along with some covet advisors in disinformation, decit, and fake news.
This group under Mr Modi has already unleashed the worst atrocities and is moving to the set bench marks of suppression, subjugation, ethnic cleansing, enslavement, racial segregation and if during this process international community raises its head, then starting a false flag operation, creating a black swan, thereby attacking Pakistani side of Kashmir as a deliberate choice. The likely attack is expected at Haji Pir or the southern side of Neelam valley.
Indian strategic planners are trying to apply all the concepts of power projection from that of hard power, smart power to the sharp power where they even want to control all three, the information, ideas and data.
This they are doing through their version of operation INFEKTION (Russian famous disinformation campaign in 80s).
In Kashmir India has changed its strategy from winning heart and mind to forget about hearts and minds. Pakistan response is measured, calculated in strategic realm based on MCD (minimum credible deterrence) aligned with full spectrum deterrence. Bridge burning if continued will very soon bring the Kashmir where deterrence failure or an effort to punish Pakistan are both un-quantifiable, as Pakistan’s survival has come to a pass where even losing an inch is like losing the Leningrad.
The writer is a free lance who contributes regularly on security related issues