Prime Minister Imran Khan will be visiting Washington in coming weeks. As a welcome sign, US State Department has recently designated Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a secessionist outfit as a global terrorist group. Pakistan should be glad to receive this favor and Islamabad rightly deserved a sign of appreciation since participation in Afghan ceasefire talks and fresh crack-down against proscribed organizations including Jammatud Dawa (JuD) went well recently. Beyond doubt Islamabad has also shown considerable level of seriousness in implementing FATF observations and Anti Money Laundering laws (AML). This time implementation in Islamabad surpasses the cosmetic trainings for selective cops and bureaucrats. This seriousness is much evident as almost all the Non-Government Organizations and civil society organizations in Pakistan are also feeling the pinch of regulatory regime introduced by government particularly the Interior Ministry.
While Islamabad is looking forward for this watershed visit with required eagerness, people sitting in the secretive eleven storeyed building in CGO Complex, New Delhi (i.e. RAW Headquarters) seem suspicious of this rapprochement by US. Indians are right in observing that this visit and gestures shown by US administration are more than a token of appreciation for Islamabad. Indians see that Pakistan will continue to play its role in Afghanistan and US-Indo nexus won’t be sufficient to settle the issues in region. For now India only feels to be of service for US as a containment instrument against Chinese foreseeable expansion in region. They believe that a new regional security paradigm might be in offing.
While determining US Counter Terrorism Policy 2020, a document, “Mapping Global Future Report of National Intelligence Council” was published in December 2004. US intelligence community members in consultation with a wider audience made predictions for about next 15 years. Document carried policy guidelines for four future fictional scenarios. The fictional scenarios such as Davos World, Pax-Americana, A New Caliphate, and Cycle of Terror were discussed which are not relevant to this article. However, the document concluded that US will have reduced role in international politics in years to come. Due to emergence of new economic powers and increasing irrelevance in Middle East, leadership in Washington would be required to adopt the new role of a balancing-power. The primary state interest examined by the reporting team for preparing the policy guidelines was to ‘stop terrorism from reaching US mainland. While keeping this primary role in focus the guidelines for counter terrorism policy were to contain and reduce the terrorist threat. The document also identified that key to US policy success lies in the resolve of each country to fight terrorism.
The coming visit of Prime Minister to US has great significance for Islamabad as it will not only determine US approach in the region but also indicate degree of Islamabad’s willingness to follow US methodology
For Americans containment and reducing terror threat seems quite simple. ‘Containment’ of terrorism carries the notion of a geographic territory that can at first attract terrorists from around the world, and later can be engaged well so that terrorists could be inextricably confined to an area. In this way your security forces do not have to chase them and do not have to locate like a ‘needle in a hay stack’. Besides Americans are tired of their invasions around the world to check advancement of threat especially when it becomes an increasingly expensive exercise. ‘Reducing’ means cutting or eliminating a known threat to a smaller size.
US administration realizes the existing threat and response as it wants involves Pakistan in one way or another. US administration in the past has already labelled war against terrorism as a “generational war” i.e., a war fought from one generation to the next generation. Pakistan has practically seen manifestation of this generational war. The momentum of threat that prevails at present around the world, cannot be stopped easily like switching the button off especially, as it has been passed on to the next generation, while the first generation was standing firm too. US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq meant entering areas where people were in comfort with the order with which their societies were being governed. US and her allies tried to unnaturally change the environment. Somebody should have thought that even if one eliminates or at least attempts to eliminate warring Jihadists all of a sudden with excessive force, the after-shocks will continue to erupt at their own time, in their own convenience, and at their own place of choice; controlling it, would be an administrative chaos.
US intends to keep its mainland safe from terrorism, and for this it may willfully allow an area far from CONUS, to contain concentration of threat. Once concentrated in a geographical boundary one can easily cut them to the size of convenience or strategic requirement, while ensuring their existence for some time and allowing dust to settle gradually and not all at once.
Pakistan has borne the brunt of terrorism for long time. Without questioning Pakistan’s interest against GWOT in the past, one can see that at this particular time in history, this has become Pakistan’s own fight and battle and Islamabad is fighting to push it back and contain it to Afghanistan. When US Counter Terrorism Policy 2020 mentions that success of its policy hinges on each country’s resolve to fight terrorism, it definitely means the countries like Pakistan which are already struggling to find a way out of the mire they are stuck in for decades. US realizes that withdrawing Extra Regional Forces from our region would generate a void which if not filled by regional states would get auto-filled by non-state actors or the reactionary forces. While Russians, Iranians, Turks, and Saudis will have to chip-in their resources at various phases of the Middle East turmoil, Pakistan will have to continuously play its role in our part of the region. CONUS would only remain secure if Pakistan, India, Iran, and China watch-over their backyards and be more committed against terrorism.
The coming visit of Prime Minister to US has great significance for Islamabad as it will not only determine US approach in the region but also indicate degree of Islamabad’s willingness to follow US methodology. Whether Kabul falls to A or B or in favor of a broad-based government, it is for sure that US would like to ride, Indian, Iranian, and more specifically Pakistani shoulders to have some say in shaping a new order in region; an order which reconciles divergent interests.
Writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues. He tweets @sabbahuddin