The United States-Iran tensions have entered a new phase recently after the US deployed strategic B-52 bombers, Patriot missiles and an aircraft carrier task force in Qatar following rising tensions with Iran. US President Donald Trump bragged about wiping out Iran from the world map in case it waged a war against America. Tensions between the two countries spiked last year as the US withdrew from the landmark Iran nuclear deal claiming that Iran was not complying with the agreement. Other parties to the deal said that they would continue to support the deal despite the US withdrawal. The US also tried to choke Iran’s economy by imposing severe restrictions on export of Iranian products. The UN observers have stated that Iran has not violated the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Now that the US has deployed its B-52 Stratofortress to the Gulf, justifying the move by claiming that the Islamic Republic was planning an attack on US forces in the region, the tensions can escalate any time. The recent bombing of four vessels including two Saudi Arabian oil tankers by unidentified elements has aggravated the problems.
Iran is located in a strategically important position. The Strait of Hormuz is used by ships carrying nearly a sixth of the global oil trade. Iran had warned in the past that it had the capability to stop the oil traffic in the waters of Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Houthi rebels, which are allegedly supported by Iran, have hit Aramco’s East-West oil pipeline, the only alternate route for Saudi Arabia’s oil in case of closure of Strait of Hormuz. The US has not formally accused Iran for the attacks yet but statements of some of its highest officials suggest that Iran is to blame.
It seems that the US is preparing itself for a war. The US has evacuated its non-emergency embassy staff from its Iraqi embassy saying that there is a threat of attack in Iraq. US diplomats have warned that the aircraft passing over the waters of the Persian Gulf risk being misidentified. The warning suggested that the heightened military activity and the political tension could cause US civil aviation operations to miscalculate the situation.
Gone are the days when the US used to forcibly change regimes
The Saudi-US nexus can be a tough one for Iran to handle. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir told a news conference that it would do what it can to prevent a war. He said in the event the other side chose war, the Kingdom will respond with force and determination, and defend itself and its interests.
An all-out war can have severe consequences for the world. First of all, Iran has warned several times that it will close the Strait of Hormuz. Recently one of its top military personnel Gen Ali Reza Tangsiri, said, “If we are banned from using it, we will close it”. The Iranian president has issued a similar warning in the past. The Strait of Hormuz is the route taken by one-sixth of the global oil trade. Its closure of can create an oil crisis in Asia and Europe. The affected economies will include China, the second largest economy in the world. The closure can create an economic crisis in the world. The prices of oil might increase many folds. Seeing its complete destruction, Iran could launch attacks on its rival countries including Saudi Arabia and Israel. This can expand the war.
The US should realize that the time for pre-emptive strikes is over. Gone are the days when it used to forcibly change regimes. Hard power is no longer as important as soft power. The US is already engaged in never-ending wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Pakistan’s role in the war can be crucial. Pakistan has long supported America in its global campaigns in the past. Pakistan should realize that this is no longer a choice. Neighbours can’t be changed. Pakistan should try to maintain good relations with Iran. Pakistan need not sacrifice its relations with Iran at any costs. A neutral and balanced approach can help Pakistan.
It is high time for all stakeholders to realize that conflict is not a good option for any of them. America can engage in another war but the consequences can be severe. Some sane decisions are needed to avoid it.
The writer is a chemical engineer by training