Whatever those who voted for him, saw in him, I didn’t. But, Imran Khan is now our PM, deservingly or undeservingly. It behooves us, his Riyaya, to inform him if we feel he could improve on his performance. Imran, or Im the Dim, as he was fondly known to his friends at Oxford, has an unfortunate proclivity to open his mouth and find his foot in it.
The first of this kind we, Pakistanis, have been honored to have was Zardari [if some friends find my omission of the First, first, Musharaf, noteworthy, I submit it is deliberate, he has already had the benefit of my frequently expressed awareness of his failings and, for me it is embarrassing to continue picking at him]; but I hope you note that I pick the de facto rulers here, not the de jure ones. However, Zardari’s amazing wile and guile at political manipulation made up for many failings.
Zardari was followed by Nawaz—-[not so Sharif]. In fairness to him, he was so consumed by his dislike, maybe even hate, of the [military] establishment, that he could cross international borders to seek support—–a habit that cost him more than once. Had Nawaz the opportunity of benefited from the Trump example, he might have known better.
Trump, won the last US election—-the country touted as “the Greatest Democracy”—and might well win a second term, by tapping the one vote bank that has never before been tapped in the US elections, the “Red Necks”. But also because of his strong anti-establishment position. This, not only reassured the Red Necks of US that he was not merely electioneering but, also won him the anti-establishment vote. Thus defeating the undefeatable Ms. Clinton.
Recently, Im has twice chosen to enlighten us on his assessment of foreign affairs; on Afghanistan and on Modi in India. Both views have some reason in them. The looming clouds portending chaos in Afghanistan may certainly lessen, if not disappear, if a broad-based government were emplaced to negotiate on Afghanistan’s future
However, before Trump sat [and I omit one alphabet in the last word, since he does dirty that throne repeatedly], while continuing his commitments to the Red Necks, Trump was soon seduced by the US establishment in a manner as to, without completely changing course, modify it sufficiently to assuage the establishment. Nawaz should have known better but was consumed by hate.
Back to Im.
Recently, Im has twicechosen to enlighten us on his assessment of foreign affairs; on Afghanistan and on Modi in India. While both views have reason in them. The looming clouds portending chaos in Afghanistan, may certainly lessen, if not disappear, if a broad-based government were emplaced to negotiate on Afghanistan’s future.
And, on Modi; the view that only an individual whose patriotism is unquestionable can negotiate on Kashmir was first expressed in 2000, by Indian analysts in the context of Musharaf. I have no disagreement that this reasoning applies doubly to India where Modi’s Hinduism is destroying whatever character Indians claimed for their nation.
The point however, is that, while these views which Im has probably picked up from his briefings by intelligence analysts, are fine behind closed doors, even including an Indian audience; they are definitely not, not ever, to be voiced in public, for the very reason that a public airingof such sensitive subjects reduce the possibility of their materializing; if not destroy the possibility entirely. On Afghanistan, it unnecessarily irritated he entire Afghan Government.
On India, it brought Modi to the level where his patriotism became questionable. And, even if Im’s assessment was corredct, Im’s voicing it could make it impossible for even Modi to broker a deal on Kashmir.
Fortunately for Im, Indian analysts, even those of the level of the retired diplomat Bhadrakumar—-fondly known as Bhadra, credit him with a far more powerfulintellect than, I must admit, I do. Bhadra has quoted Im’s words on India as very wise and perceptive views which, according to Bhadra, have been gleaned by Im from his briefings by ISI.
I am quite certain that Im gets his regular periodic briefings both from ISI and GHQ. He is fortunate that he continues to enjoy the full support of the establishment.
But, if he continues his merry way, that support might not last long. The ineptitude of the present government magnificently visible in every matter it is addressing. Hitherto, that ineptitude was missing from his mutterings on foreign policy—-perhaps because Im left it to his betters on this particular subject—-and I am not referring to the Foreign Minister who still pines a chief minister-ship.
How long can we keep the boat afloat by plugging holes with square pegs?
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)