Imran Khan has secured a Chinese goody bag. Although both Islamabad and Beijing played it coy before the cameras, emerging reports detail the inking of a $6 billion-economic package: a $1.5bn-loan and a grant for the same amount; as well as $3bn-in additional CPEC-related assistance. Combined with the $6bn in Saudi loans, this adds up to a lot of dosh: $12bn overall. Given that this is the total amount for which the Centre has approached the IMF, there is now speculation that the ruling PTI will bow out of a deal that has yet to be sealed on this front.
All of which places state and citizenry in a bit of a quandary. For while the Beijing Doctrine of multilateralism is appealing in as much as it does not tie investment or cash injections to the internal affairs of foreign powers — Islamabad must not use this as an excuse to brush under the proverbial carpet the recent insurrection waged by Khadim Rizvi. Not least because such law and order situations followed by capitulation make international investors jittery. Presumably, Prime Minister Khan will not wish to be the man single-handedly responsible for prompting China to rethink its tried-and-tested approach.
Recent events here in Pakistan will naturally put pressure on Beijing at international forums. Indeed, this was successfully managed by the US back in February when it, along with a handful of European nations including Britain, tabled the motion to place this country on the FATF grey-list. A move that was largely linked to the release of Hafiz Saeed from house arrest this time last year. Since then, a presidential ordinance outlawing he and his organisations has both been promulgated and allowed to lapse. No one will have to guess at the message delivered by the IMF when a delegation visits this week.
Thus far, President Xi appears to be giving the new political set-up the benefit of the doubt; with the top leadership vowing not to let Pakistan down. The two sides signed some 15 Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) covering fields as diverse as agricultural and meteorological cooperation. That being said, Islamabad must not take either this or the commitment to CPEC for granted. The China-Pakistan bus route that was scheduled to launch at the end of last week has been delayed due to recent protests. This will not have gone unnoticed in Beijing. Successive governments here have focused on legitimate external threats; principally from India and Afghanistan. But what has become clearer over the last year — and particularly in recent days — is that the country faces not just a home-grown militant threat but also one from an organised and violent religious right that seeks legitimisation at the ballot box. And, thus far, the state has shown that is does not have the stomach to take on the latter; being already exhausted from the ongoing battle to flush out terrorists from within national borders in someone else’s war. Meaning that when it comes to the mullahs, the Centre prefers the path of appeasement; regardless of how misguided this is.
It is hoped that PM Khan will not ignore this menace as he counts Chinese coffers. *
Published in Daily Times, November 4th 2018.