Of all the collective mess that Atif Mian’s episode has exposed of our society and politics, in subtle ways it has also revealed a structural dynamic of PTI that may create a challenge, or an opportunity for the party in times to come — depending on how they use the information. The structural dynamic also helps explain what exactly happened in the unfortunate reversal of Atif Mian’s appointment.
Atif Mian’s episode has brought out the two PTI’s that till now were gelled together in their combined opposition of what they called the ‘corrupt’ political mafias in Pakistan. The top leadership of PTI is liberal, globalized, educated, and happens to have a soft corner on matters of faith and merit. This lot also happens to be the large donors of PTI and the public face domestically and globally. Many of these are old timers in PTI but most of them are those that were part of the PTI’s wave during the Lahore jalsa in 2011. The only problem with this lot is that it has very little direct electoral contribution to PTI, but strong policy relevance within the party.
The other PTI is the lower cadre, and the political worker — the real electoral strength of PTI that is neither liberal, and nor globalized. This is the Islamist face of PTI that initially rejected Imran as a ‘Zionist’ when he started his political career. Their change of heart came in mid 2000’s when Imran Khan took an overtly anti-war, and anti-drone stance against the United States. With the MMA discredited and religious parties losing ground at the end of General Musharraf’s era, the student federation of Jamat-e-Islami filled the PTI ranks. It is this lot that contributed in transforming the playboy and Zionist image of Imran Khan to a God fearing man that prays five times a day. PTI owes a size of its electoral gains to this lot that took Imran Khan to the villages and rural Pakistan. The problem, however, with this bloc is that it does not carry the same relevance in PTI’s policy apparatus.
What the Atif Mian episode has essentially done, sooner than expected, is caused a crack in this flimsy and strange alliance of globalists and anti-globalists, fashion designers and A-list celebrities with Islamists and most importantly between the policy-significant and electorally-significant blocs
PTI’s existential dilemma, therefore, is that those it needs for votes, it does not need for policymaking, and those that it needs for policymaking cannot get the votes. In other words, there is a split between those that win PTI elections and those that will deliver in terms of policy. Now, what the Atif Mian episode has essentially done, sooner than expected, is caused a crack in this flimsy and strange alliance of globalists and anti globalists, fashion designers and A-list celebrities with Islamists and most importantly between the policy-significant and electorally-significant blocs.
For instance, when PTI announced the Economic Advisory Council, it was the liberal PTI that openly celebrated Atif Mian’s appointment as a reflection of ‘Naya Pakistan’ in hopes to shed off that ‘right wing’ image of Imran Khan that many local and foreign journalists were eager to prove. The hope was to transform Imran Khan from an opposition and center-right politician to a national and globally accepted leader that puts merit over faith that was required to deliver on the policy front. The lower cadre of PTI with its electoral concerns was uneasy but did not respond publicly to the decision and on some level even swallowed the decision of the party leadership.
However, in fragile democracies where political parties lack the true sense of freedom, rights of citizen, equality and minority groups are often used as a political card against those in power. It is not hard to see the unfortunate politics of both the PML-N and PPP that on one end directed their social media teams to play the Ahmadi card, against PTI appointing a few mid level politicians to back the narrative, while on the other end got a few senior politicians to play the ‘good cop’ by distancing the party leadership from the self-initiated bigotry.
Therefore, with PML-N and PPP making Atif Mian’s appointment controversial, the Islamist bloc within the PTI gained momentum and pushed back those, internally against the party leadership’s decision on Atif Mian. They had a point; the gains in policy were less than the losses in electoral politics this early in the government. Deliver first on basic things, and come back later to the sensitive issues is what the PTI leadership eventually decided.
In the first month of the PTI government, Prime Minister Imran Khan got his first taste of a tough decision between policy and politics that has so far crippled Pakistan’s economic and development progress. How will the PM be able to balance these twin structures of the PTI, that allows him to deliver on policy, while maintaining the electoral stability is the key that holds his success?
The writer is PhD Candidate(GIR) Coordinator South Asia Study Group, University of Sydney
Published in Daily Times, September 23rd 2018.