An event that occurred some weeks ago and seems to have gone relatively unnoticed and uncommented upon was the meeting of the Russian, Iranian, Chinese intelligence chiefs with the Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
They met a couple of days before the event was made public on July 10, 2018. The announcement came, not from ISI, but by the spokesperson of the Russian Department of Foreign Intelligence.
Any meeting between two heads of intelligence is an important event; a meeting of four should be considered a momentous event. Surely four, maybe more, high ranking officials may have met before under the umbrella of NATO or the erstwhile Warsaw Pact. But, if it happened, it was under the umbrella of a defense alliance. The countries which attended this meeting are not part of a defense alliance; at least not yet.
The meeting occurred in absolute secrecy but, a day or two after the incident it was made public through the Russian news agency, TASS. That, in fact makes the event of greater significance. Why an event which occurred in absolute secrecy should, be subsequently disclosed? I am no spook but my limited understanding says that the event had to be planned for subsequent disclosure. If so, the only question then is: why was the disclosure of such significance?
Not just that, the reason for the meeting i.e. the deteriorating Afghanistan security situation with particular emphasis on the increasing footprint of the Islamic State (IS) was made clear. However it is possible that there were other reasons, which can be understood in light of the current geo-political context.
The most obvious thing is that, all concerned countries were to be made aware of the meeting, its subject, and who attended as well as who was deliberately excluded. So, these four seem agreed upon the idea that India is not a directly concerned country. The exclusion of the United States(US) and Afghanistan speaks volumes. The most likely reason seems to be that the United State is suspect with regard to the IS presence in Afghanistan. Afghanistan; since Ghani seems clearly and unequivocally committed to the US, which perhaps explains the Afghani exclusion.
both, the Americans and the Taliban have shifted from their previously relentless positions, to make possible a negotiated settlement that could put an end to the endless war in this benighted country. Taliban have stated that they are prepared for a US presence in Afghanistan and the US has agreed to negotiate directly with them, unconditionally
The next deduction is that these four countries have common grounds of concern and, their concerns, not publicly detailed, are sufficient for the fact of their meeting to be made public. In effect, they are saying that those seeking to undermine their collective interests in Afghanistan should be aware that these four are united and will safeguard their interests collectively. Clearly implied therein is that they consider Afghan security of sufficient importance to let the world know that they will go very far indeed to ensure it; even if opposed by “spoiler” countries, including the Afghans.
Russia, Pakistan, and Iran; all three have, over the past few years become allied to China, individually. This event also discloses that they are now collectively involved for the future. While no one can say what other matters are their collective concern, Afghanistan certainly is. And, therefore, by implication, neither Iran nor Pakistan can be isolated or scapegoated by the US, or another country; not with regard to developments in Afghanistan.
It is also obvious there from that Pakistan has not chosen sides in the Middle Eastern conflict. We do not wish to jeopardize our friendly relations with the Saudis but, this meeting indicates that we also wish to further improve our relations with Iran. And, in this too, China and Russia are alongside us. I could continue drawing further deductions from this event but, these get increasingly complex and devious for me to continue.
But, one could advert to the reason why the disclosure was by the Russians; not the hosts. While there could be many possibilities; there are two that seem most likely; firstly that the Russian disclosure would be taken more seriously for numerous reasons but, far more importantly that with Trump so assiduously making up with Putin; a Russian announcement might be less offensive to Trump.
However, this event is not all that has happened before or since. After threatening nuclear war, Trump seems to have had a non-acrimonious meeting with Kim in Singapore and seems to have decided to live with North Korea’s nuclear program; as it stands. Days before announcing his unprecedented sanctions on Iran, Trump seemed to offer an olive branch when he proclaimed that he was prepared to meet Rouhani, unconditionally. This too was quite a leap from his previous position.
But finally and most significantly, both, the Americans and the Taliban have shifted from their previously relentless positions, to make possible a negotiated settlement that could put an end to the endless war in this benighted country. Taliban have stated that they are prepared for a US presence in Afghanistan and the US has agreed to negotiate directly with them, unconditionally.
Could these changes have resulted due to the meeting? It is impossible to deduce why a change of heart has occurred in the minds of so many diverse peoples whom one does not even know and, therefore impossible to aver the affirmative. But, it is equally impossible to aver that there is no connection. I would be surprised if there were no connection whatsoever.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, August 19th 2018.