Pakistan’s tenth general elections are scheduled for July 25. Presently, there is much debate on social media regarding the code and conduct of the election, expected voter turnout, expected seats the mainstream parties can win and the likely nature of the government. Will it be a simple majority, an overwhelming majority or a coalition government? Since the prevailing viewpoints lack a rigorous analysis of Pakistani civil-military relations, I would like to put forth my opinion in terms of proposing certain scenarios, as it is very hard to be deterministic about a particular outcome due to the complexities of Pakistani politics, where the informality of the power structure plays a crucial role within an otherwise formal system of statecraft.
To begin with, the first scenario could be that that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) forms the next government because it has a good number of strong electables in (north and central) Punjab, almost singular media coverage, effective media-based electoral campaigns and, indubitably, the blessings of the powers that be. Moreover, the new entrants such as the extreme right-wing Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) will only act as spoilers to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) conservative vote; the direct beneficiary will be the PTI since no party is as structurally and ideologically visible in the Punjab province with 141 general seats for the national assembly.
In addition, the PTI is likely to grab a few seats from Sindh and around a quarter from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). It is, therefore, expected that the PTI can secure around a hundred seats on its own; however, it still falls short of the required 136 to form the government. This means, Khan’s party will require coalition partner(s). The independents, including Chaudhry Nisar’s ‘jeep’ block — which expects to win over thirty seats — would play a crucial role. It is even likely that Nisar himself could be our next prime minister. If the inter-party negotiations fail, someone else from the independents will be honoured out of necessity. It is almost impossible for the PTI to win an overwhelming majority without rigging on and after polling day, and that too on a large scale. If this happens, Imran Khan, as he desperately wishes, could be the prime minister but the entire electoral exercise will be controversial and could cause protests.
The second scenario portrays the three mainstream parties, namely PML-N, PTI and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), securing around seventy seats each whereby none can form the government on its own. In that case, two sub-scenarios are plausible: one, the PTI and PPP can make a parliamentary alliance whereby smaller parties such as Muttahida Majlis Amal (MMA) and Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) join them to make alliances at the provincial level; two, the PML-N can also form a coalition government with the PPP, MMA and the independents whereby Shehbaz Sharif would get to be the PM and Asif Ali Zardari the President. However, these scenarios will be contingent on a level playing field for both PML-N and the PPP. For now the latter, in particular, is facing campaign constraints in the name of security. Moreover, the PML-N led by Shehbaz Sharif and the PPP led practically by Mr Zardari would have to send clear vibes to the miltablishment that they mean business. Otherwise, tit for tat between the former and the latter will continue in the foreseeable future. However, if this scenario materializes, it offers a stable coalition government of mainly two parties besides contributing much needed legitimacy to the elections.
The first scenario could be that that the PTI forms the next government because it has a good number of strong electables in Punjab, almost singular media coverage, effective media-based electoral campaigns and, indubitably, the blessings of the powers that be
The third scenario revolves around the precarious security situation. It is tragic indeed that the second-tier leadership of Awami National Party (ANP), MMA and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) have been targeted by terrorists over the last two weeks. The Mastung suicide attack was the deadliest in years, taking the lives of131 innocent civilians. The occurrence of terror attacks during the electoral campaign is extremely alarming, not just for the political parties but also the country, which is passing through a critical juncture.
NACTA has, in this respect, issued its latest threat alerts that put the entire major political leadership, including Imran Khan, on high alert. It is pertinent that the law enforcement provide politicians with the required security during their campaigns. Having said that, it is impossible to predict and preempt suicide bombers. God forbid, if any of the top political leaders lose their life in a terrorist attack, the election could be postponed and a sort of national government formed until the civil, judicial and the military stakeholders reach a consensus on holding fresh elections. This scenario is scary because it endangers political stability, social cohesion and economic recovery.
The fourth scenario portrays the post-election political situation. In case both the PPP and PML-N are unable to share power provincially or federally — and the two parties are further grilled in corruption related charges — the two can form a political alliance to challenge the civil-military government. In such a scenario, serious law and order problems may occur that end up in the use of force. This may further ignite passions which, in the case of jailed Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, have already been expressed on social media and practically during PML-N’srally in Lahore. If the two parties realise they are able to destabilise the PTI led civil government and pursue the negotiation of a new social contract with the miltablishment, the latter, if engulfed in severe law and order situation in major urban centers, is likely to react the way it has done in the past: (hard, not soft) martial law.
Which of the four scenarios sees light of the day is conditional to the mentioned actors and (situational) factors. However, it is in the interest of Pakistan and the region that the country keeps up with a semblance of democracy where political forces are allowed to form alliances and governments in a fair and free manner. Given the current security, social and economic challenges, I would wish our civil, judicial and military leadership learn to make choices that serve the larger interests of the country.
The writer is Head, Department of Social Sciences, Iqra University, Islamabad. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright Fellow. He tweets @ejazbhatty
Published in Daily Times, July 17th 2018.