The 18th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit was held in the coastal city of Qingdao in China’s Shandong province this June, where Pakistan and India joined in for the first time as permanent members, which also include China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
This development was momentous; on the one hand, their accession has enhanced the position of the organisation in the international community as two more nuclear power states have joined its ranks, while on the other hand, it provides a stage for both countries to deal with the issues pertaining to their common border and the region as a whole.
It is imperative that the summit is used as a way to tackle these issues, in order to empower the SCO further, and it is heartening to see that there is already a consensus on jointly eliminating all the emerging threats from the region.
The presence of both China and Russia will have a huge influence on the organisation, as the SCO is not SAARC, and India cannot claim to be the primary power within the group.
Here, India will need to share the power dynamics with two global powers, which will help keep their actions in check. However, that has not stopped India from trying to exert some authority, as they were the only nation to openly oppose the BRI project, as per the 17 page Qingdao Declaration that was released at the end of the Summit. In his summit address, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, stressed the need to “respect sovereignty” in dealing with infrastructure projects.
He also signalled his country’s objection to a portion of the Belt and Road Initiative, specifically the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. New Delhi claims these regions are part of the greater Kashmir, and are disputed territories, a charge which Pakistan and the Kashmiris strongly reject.
This development raises one main question. How can India continue to oppose this mega project, when every major country in the region in a part of it. The economic advantages are too high to ignore and the situation is further complicated by India’s growing friendship with the US. Both nations have joined hands on a number of projects for building strategic and security ties, yet this cannot last when on the other side India is also trying to form alliances with Russia and China. This diplomatic challenge might prove to be quite a conundrum for New Delhi to solve, and it has the potential to isolate them in the long run as well.
Unveiled in 2013, BRI is linking Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Gulf Region, Africa and Europe, and includes both sea and land routes. Chinese investment is estimated to be $126 billion, and even though some countries are sceptical about the project, over 80 countries and international organisations have signed agreements of cooperation with China, agreeing to be part of this project.
Apart from this new emerging trend of economic and regional integration, since India and Pakistan first joined the SCO as observer states back in 2005, political dynamics around the world have undergone a change as well. Both countries are currently at the lowest ebb of their relationship, and several incidents, including the chaos in Kashmir have further led to the deterioration of their already shaky association with one another, leading India to vow to isolate Pakistan internationally.
India is facing similar challenges with China, which include the recent border backlash, India’s involvement in the war on trade between China and USA, and their recent isolation at the SCO summit. On the one side they are sticking to their policy of opposing CPEC, but on the other side they are desperately trying to utilise the routes that the BRI will open up to the markets in Central Asia, Russia and even Europe.
Once again the great dilemma that faces India is exposed, and on top of all these problems, there also remains India’s desire to be the hegemon in Asia; a prospect that seems unlikely considering China’s current progress, which is being supplemented by BRI.
Even though India’s opposition to CPEC did not come as a surprise, there is no doubt that they, as well as Pakistan, are more than willing to abide by the SCO charter. As a result, both countries recently sent their military personnel to participate in joint-military exercises
Even though India’s opposition to CPEC did not come as a surprise, there is no doubt that they, as well as Pakistan, are more than willing to abide by the charter of the SCO.
We must also remember that both countries recently sent their military personnel to participate in joint military exercises. Who could have ever thought that these two arch rivals and heavily armed, nuclear nations would ever conduct military exercises together?
It was their desire to respect the wishes, and the directives of the SCO that resulted in this momentous occasion. However, it will be interesting to see just how far both states are willing to go in order to continue working in collaboration with each other. Growing connectivity, economic development and military cooperation in the region will only lead to peace, prosperity and security, and both India and Pakistan will have to realise that in order to function in such an environment, they will eventually have to cooperate with one another, no matter what.
The writer is Secretary General, Pakistan Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Friendship Forum
Published in Daily Times, July 12th 2018.