Voila! Trump-Kim summit is back on track after General Kim Yong Chol of North Korea met President Trump and handed over an unusually large envelope sent by Master Kim.
Hence, the two leaders will be meeting in Singapore on June 12, but it can all go in vain, as US will sit on the negotiation table with sky-high demands.
On the very first hand, it all happened in extremely unusual fashion. I mean, when summits take place, diplomats of the participating countries start preparation months prior and, believe me, they work so hard that they can even predict the result of negotiations, who will have a strong position in the talks and which party will be ready to make big compromises.
But this will be out of the norm kind of a meeting. Not a single US president in past thought of talking to the North Korean administration as a solution to the Korean War. We must appreciate president Trump for, at least, choosing a peaceful track while his security advisors want to use coercive techniques to tackle the situation in Korean Peninsula just like before.
The question is, however, will Kim Jong Un agree to completely denuclearise his nation?
I don’t think so. What happened with Col. Qaddafi in 2011 could be a lesson for Kim at this very moment; at least experts from all across the world think so. United States is clear about what they want i.e. complete dismantling of existing nuclear arsenals, their development and testing sites and no work on any nuclear weapon project in future.
Trump has ominously said that he will take some serious actions if negotiations won’t work. Nukes are very important for North Korean diplomatic strategy and security that it won’t destroy all of them that easily.
North Korea wants recognition as a nuclear state and to take part in international affairs just like other nuclear states do. Just like every leader, Kim also wants the world to respect him, his nation and possess the status that leaders like Putin, Trump and Xi enjoy. A one-on-one meeting with Trump would be the best way to attain that.
Kim knows the importance of economic modernisation. North Korea’s economy has collapsed because of US sanctions and Kim will take full advantage of this opportunity to turn things around.
He can go for some limited nuclear concession, like indefinite freeze on testing nukes in exchange for sanctions relief that would act as a push on his stagnant economy. What else does Kim want from this summit?
There is another possibility. Maybe that he already has assumed the meeting will be a failure because of the sky-high demands of United States and that he will then blame US for the collapse and in the end South Koreans and their president will take Kim’s side because of US’s extremely rigid behavior.
North Korea has always wanted bad relations between US and South Korea.
No doubt, Kim will be more flexible than president Trump in terms of denuclearisation. Even if we won’t see an absolute denuclearised North of Korea, still it is possible that Kim will give up major parts of its nuclear program – like R&D and testing.
Million dollar question is, will it be a successful summit? The answer depends on how the Trump administration respond. White House wants complete denuclearisation – meaning North Korea getting rid of its nuclear weapons entirely. The officials already have said that no concessions will be made without North Korea going much further than just stopping the testing.
Kim wants something less and Trump wants something like a “big bang.” This mismatch will end up in something horrific for sure. Like 2017, world will observe tit-for-tat type treats and belligerency again and negotiations will be tough and if not handled properly, could make things worse.
We will have to wait for the day – June 12. Everyone wants to see a peaceful Korean peninsula. No one is in favor of a nuclear war. Japan didn’t possess nuclear missiles at the time of World War II. It was an easy task for US at that time to force Japan to surrender but this is not the same situation. DPRK has active nukes. Any military action from United States will wipe out the entire human race.
Whatsoever will come out of it, one thing is clear, that the result of the summit will decide whether President Trump will get Nobel Peace Prize or not.
The writer is a Blogger and Social Activist. He studies Global Economics and International Relations. Frequently writes in ARY and Dunya Blogs. His writings cover Economic issues, Foreign affairs, Politics, Culture and Finance. He Tweets @An_AliSalman