So, Mosul al-Jadida has reportedly been liberated completely. Daesh is on a retreat. After such a heavy pounding in Levant, what’s next for Mr. Bagdadi and his men? Watch out for now as Daesh’s affiliate in Af-Pak region will try to come out of the hiding with full throttle. Whether one may like it or not, but, post-Mosul will be WilayatK horasan.
On 7thFebruary, Daesh pamphlets resurfaced in Kurram Agency. But, the authorities chose to remain oblivious with the threat perception not taken seriously. What has transpired afterwards makes up for a sheer travesty.
The rise of the Islamic State isn’t concerning for Afghanistan only, rather it becomes a predicament for Pakistan as well. The Islamic State — Wilayat Khorasan — Daesh’s affiliate in the region was formally established in January 2015. The Khorasan Chapter is largely headed by TTP’s defectors that have vowed allegiance to the IS in the recent past. Commanders from the Khyber agency, and, particularly, the Orakzai area, were initially vested with the responsibility of managing the group therein. Their familiarity with the terrain and the culture of Pakistan’s border areas speaks for itself.
The funding for the Khorasan Chapter comes from the central command of the IS, located in Iraq and Syria. The reach of IS (K) encompasses the eastern province of Nangarhar, and the southern area of Helmand. It has been more than a year since the group was defeated and forced to retreat from Helmand by the Afghan Taliban.
As per the official Pentagon figures, there are around 3,000 foot soldiers fighting in Afghanistan for the IS (K). Most of them are in the eastern part of the Afghanistan, primarily, the Nangarhar province. It is intriguing to note that most of the fighters are foreign nationals. The rank and file of the Islamic Jihad Union forms part of the Daesh’s affiliate in Af-Pak region.
Apart from the presence in the eastern and southern regions of Afghanistan, IS (K) has its eyes set on the northern region for long. Kunduz, Faryab and Samangan provinces are among the group’s intended peripheral reach. Perhaps, it may have to do with cashing in on the fighters coming from the northern Afghanistan and adjoining Central Asian regions. However, the Islamic State hasn’t had much of a success in the area yet.
The threat isn’t limited to Afghanistan only. Wilayat Khorasan’s top brass comes from Pakistan, and as mentioned, majority of which comprises TTP defectors. Hafiz Saeed of Orakzai agency and Shahid Ullah Shahid are glaring examples. TTP commanders joining in the ranks of the Islamic State Khorasan don’t seem to bode well for Pakistan. Particularly, with Royal United Services Institute’s report that there are around 3,000 Daesh members operating from within Pakistan.
The threat is imminent and scrambling hard to debunk it might not serve Pakistan well. The clock seems to have ticked back, and Al-Qaeda is tipped to resurface — and that too, with all of the ferocity linked with its heydays. With all the re-grouping, re-branding and resurfacing, the question is whether Pakistan is ready to counter such an upheaval among the ranks of the Jihadi outfits. Constantly looking the other way around might just come back to haunt the country later.
With President Trump at the helm, predicting America’s future policy in Afghanistan wouldn’t be an arduous task. Particularly, as per Daniel L. Byman, one of the most-lauded counter-terrorism experts in the world, Trump calling it ‘radical Islam’ makes all the difference now.
President Obama refrained from using such a phrase. Republicans, however, appear to be too creative. We all know the repercussions of President George Walker Bush using the innovative ‘war on terror’ term. With Putin seemingly on board, President Trump might contemplate a decisive war against the radicals in Afghanistan. Wilayat Khorasan, then, will have no choice but to move eastwards to have shelter. Pakistan is surely going to require a certain level of perspicacity to avoid a repeat of the 1980s.
President Trump having majority of the military men in his cabinet gives an insight about the things to come. Marine General James Mattis as Defense Secretary, Marine General John Kelly as Homeland Security Secretary, Lieutenant General Herbert Raymond McMaster as the National Security Advisor, Navy Commodore. Ryan Zinke as Interior Secretary, and Army Secretary Major Vincent Viola are Trump’s significant picks.
All of them combined will either implode in terms of the policies they bring to the table; or, having been at the forefront and knowing what it feels like to be in the battlefield, they might add a sense of calmness and stability to the Oval Office.
President Trump seems to have a more robust and aggressive Afghan policy on the cards. Robert Grenier, a former CIA Director and author of “88 Days to Kandahar: A CIA Diary” has recently stated that President Trump is contemplating having American ‘boots on ground’ in the various conflict zones. Panic alarms should’ve been ringing by now. However, it’s never too late, anyway.
Is Pakistan ready for the topsy-turvy times ahead? Yes, the state is working extremely hard; and is currently in the process of establishing whether sectarian outfits pose a terrorist threat or not. Great going- isn’t it?
The writer is a counter terrorism and security analyst