As they say, a week is too long of a time span in politics. A lot can happen and come to think a lot in fact did happen. You must have read umpteen number of pieces on the Faizabad debacle and by now perhaps up to your eyeballs with the similar analyses. Catharsis of all sorts, regurgitating the same information with a variation of few words and sentences. Yours truly refrained from opining last week, when the incident was still a major story. Because this scribe prefers to embrace reality and analyse it at face value, based on his observations and understanding.
So, let’s embark on a quick tour of what the others have perhaps overlooked or decided to leave aside due to space constraints. As we all know the countries that matter to us due to our thorny relations with them are, India and the United States. There has been a resurgence of the conservative right wing in both countries. In Pakistan, that right wing vote was aligned with the incumbents for multiple reasons. Over the years, the incumbents that emerged as a mainstream right-wing outfit have progressed to capture the elements of progressives and the left.
The bruised, battered and cornered Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), especially after the death of its leader Benazir Bhutto, lost its steam in the majority province of Punjab. The landscape of Punjab was under the tight control Pakistan Muslim League (PMLN) under Nawaz Sharif. With his ouster and the questionable disqualification, the PML-N has been dented severely. The vote bank in Punjab belongs to Nawaz. Even if he backs his younger brother in the upcoming elections, it is still not his personal gain.
The younger Sharif is embroiled in a mess of his own, called the Model Town massacre. If he is deemed unfit to run due to legal challenges, then there is a vacuum. Those who orchestrated this whole game have made tremendous gains. Whether you and I agree or disagree, with those elements and what long term implications all these fatal moves will have, is a totally separate issue. Most gifted analysts have remained focused solely on the aspect of implications.
Over the years, the incumbents that emerged as a mainstream right-wing outfit have progressed to capture the elements of progressives and the left
That aspect is important but in our culture, where changes are so rapid, people pay less heed to such careful and methodical planning. To them it is more of ad hoc dealing with day to day fiascos as they surface. What it looks like is, to give a befitting response to the conservatives of neighbouring India and President Trump of the US, our brand of the religious right will be in action. If the elections are held in 2018, this segment is expected to do extremely well. Most senior analysts have predicted that 2018 Parliament will be almost hung, and a coalition government will be inevitable.
It is a safe assumption that incumbents will not be able to become that party that will steer such coalition. It will be more than likely a Mr. Khan led coalition or perhaps a religious right coalition being led by a Mr Khadim Rizvi. The Faizabad sit in and its victory being the biggest feather in his cap, he seems to be that leader being prepped and propped for that renaissance of the ultra-right.
Perhaps the idea is to counter the religious right of the arch rival by providing, an equally fundamental and equally menacing government on this end. Comparing it to our neighbours, where beef consumption is now considered an offense, closely monitored by roadside vigilantes, the thought of someone questioning the finality of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) riles up masses, on this side. So long as religion is injected and used to further political gains it is considered fair game on both ends.
Barring any major miracle, it is a foregone conclusion that, PML(N) will be going through a process of reduction. Whatever it takes, be it the disgruntled members, be it the turncoats, who had joined in 2013 or be it the followers of a certain holy men, every trick will be applied to its core.
The Nooners have significant blame to share for this disastrous situation. The list of their blunders is way too long and perhaps a subject for a different write up. Their rallying cry has been ‘conspiracy’ or for that matter ‘conspiracies’ from day one. What the Nooners have utterly and miserably failed in properly accessing their risk calculus and making appropriate moves at the right time.
The historical performance of religious right at the ballot box in Pakistan has been less than stellar. Overall Pakistani voters have been moderate, however that tendency is about to change, and it will bring a significant change. The Khadim Rizvis and his likes will be emboldened and given the limelight to send the right signals externally.
The moral aspect of this whole experiment aside, keep in mind that deliberate effort was made to mainstream the religio-fascists for certain reasons. If you are thinking it was done to rehabilitate them, then you are mistaken. This wild card was pulled out of the deck to ace the arch rivals on both domestic and the external fronts. So, for consolation, if there is any in this madness, there definitely seems to be a methodical approach towards it.
The writer is a Pakistani-American mortgage banker. He blogs at http://dasghar.blogspot.com and can be reached at [email protected]. He tweets at http://twitter.com/dasghar
Published in Daily Times, December 11th 2017.