His timing seems to be almost perfect. With the world oil prices expected never to go back to the good old days of $100 a barrel, the oil exporting Middle East seems to have effectively lost forever its petrodollar power. And each of the country in the group currently seems to be in the grip of intense political chaos.
The House of Saud, the custodian of Islam’s holiest places is in a state of classical turmoil as Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman in his attempt to bring under his personal control all the levers of power in the Kingdom has unhinged the ruling family to its roots and started introducing his own interpretation of religion which appears to be in total disagreement with those of Saudi Arabia’s traditionally orthodox Wahabi character.
The three-year old Saudi-Yemen war has finally turned into what is being seen as a battle between Sunnis and Shias dividing the Muslim World into two confrontationist groups. Syria and Iraq are still in a state of civil war compounded by terrorism in the name of Islamic Khilfat.
Meanwhile, the European supporters of the Palestinian cause, at one time in overwhelming majority, seem to bedwindling under intense pressure from Europe’s rising far-right ultra-nationalists. UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and the rise in Germany and France of nationalists characterize these changes.
Still, President Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital at this point in time without the latter offering any kind of concessions to the Palestinians in return does not make much sense. The only ‘thank you’ that he has received so far is from Israel.
Most world leaders have expressed disapproval. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said it signalled the U.S. was no longer a “peace mediator,” while Hamas said Trump’s choice would “open the gates of hell.” Pope Francis called for respect of the status quo and the EU urged restraint, as protests broke out in Jordan and Turkey. Palestinian authorities had called a general strike for Thursday. The Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) has convened a meeting on December 13 to discuss the issue. UN Security Council too has scheduled a meet.
Israel is Washington’s most pampered country. The economic and military aid it receives year after year has enabled Israel to defeat the comined militaries of the Arab world in two decisive wars and create settlements in illegally occupied territory
Of course the announcement is not going to lead to massive violence, as some have feared. Palestinians are so powerless and divided that it’s difficult to see large-scale violence taking place, including against Israel. There might very well be protests, or isolated terrorist incidents. But the upshot of this move is more likely that it will simply add further despondency to Palestinians.
President Donald Trump has time and again made clear that the pursuit of narrow national advantage will guide his policies-apparently regardless of the impact on the liberal world order that the United States has championed since 1945. But one does not see any immediate national advantage for the Americans flowing out of this decision unless the President plans to follow up by withdrawing from the nuclear deal the US plus five have signed with Iran. But this too is more likely to cause US to lose more friends.
Oppression of Jews at the hands of Christians had peaked in the years of the two world wars. By the late 19th century both the oppressor and the oppressed seemed to have reached exhaustion wanting badly to run away from each other. It was in this frame of mind that Cyprus and the Sinai were earmarked by the oppressed as potential homes of European Jews away from home. Britain rejected both and counter offered a plot of land in Uganda, which was rejected by the sixth Zionist Congress . Any attempts to talk with the Ottoman Empire about Zionist ambitions in Palestine were non-starters.
Finally on Oct. 31, 1917, as the victorious powers of the World War I were carving out the Middle East Prime Minister David Lloyd George of Great Britain signed what is called the 67-word Balfour declaration which read:
“His Majesty’s government view with favor the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavors to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”
For the British government, it seemed a guarantee of territorial suzerainty (and a way to keep the French at arm’s length from the lucrative Suez Canal).
But for the 600,000 Arabs in Palestine who made up over 90 percent of the population, it was the ultimate betrayal, one that intellectual Edward Said would later label an example of “the moral epistemology of imperialism.”
Before the discovery of oil, this part of the world was vital to Britain because it was part of trade and imperial communications routes to India.
As the powers of Great Britain started shrinking following the World War II, the US stepped into the space wherever it could. And the oil-rich Middle East attracted its keen interest. While trying to secure unhindered supply of oil from the region, it saw in Israel a willing proxy policeman and thus began a US-Israel honeymoon which has continued all these 70 years. Israel is perhaps Washington’s most pampered country receiving the largest of economic and military aid year after year. This has enabled the Jewish state to not only defeat the combined militaries of the Arab countries in two decisive wars but since it has been creating new realities with settlements in occupied lands with the full political support from the US. To the world at large the US had kept promising to help mediate a two state solution between the powerful Israeli government and the ever flagging Palestinian authority.
But now that the US itself has become a net exporter of oil and is no more dependent on the Middle East for the black gold, it would not be too long before it would realize, if one went by Trump’s narrow nationalist policies, the uselessness of propping up Israel any more.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. He served as the Executive Editor of Express Tribune until 2014
Published in Daily Times, December 9th 2017.