The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country from June to August. The outlook raises concerns for agriculture, water management, and public health during the peak summer season. Farmers, urban residents, and communities in vulnerable regions are expected to face the greatest impact.
According to the PMD, the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral and is likely to turn positive by July. Meanwhile, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has entered a positive phase and is expected to strengthen further. As a result, most parts of Pakistan are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the June-July-August period, with northeastern Punjab expected to experience the largest rainfall deficit.
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The department’s probability outlook indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and much of Balochistan. However, northern regions, including Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir, may receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall. At the same time, temperatures are expected to remain above average nationwide, with the most significant increases forecast for eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of northern Punjab.
The PMD warned that reduced rainfall could create moisture stress during Kharif crop sowing and early crop development. Lower precipitation may also reduce rain-fed agricultural productivity and increase irrigation demand. Nevertheless, higher rainfall in upper catchment areas could improve reservoir levels, supporting water supplies for agriculture and power generation. The department also cautioned that heavy rainfall in northern regions could trigger flash floods, landslides, and urban flooding in low-lying areas of major cities.
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In addition, the PMD highlighted the risk of heatwaves across Sindh and southern Punjab, along with strong winds, dust storms, and hailstorms caused by sharp temperature differences. Elevated temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt and increase glacier-related hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods. The department also warned that hot and humid conditions could raise the risk of vector-borne diseases such as dengue and urged timely monitoring to prevent crop pests and disease outbreaks.