Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has projected an average inflation rate of 8.6 per cent for the upcoming fiscal year 2026–27, as discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continue over the country’s macroeconomic framework.
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According to official details, Pakistan and the visiting IMF mission have reached broad agreement on the overall economic framework for the next budget cycle, which outlines key growth, inflation and fiscal targets.
The finance ministry has also forecast a real GDP growth rate of 4.1 per cent for the next fiscal year, based on average Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 8.6 per cent. The projections form part of early budget planning for fiscal year 2026–27.
However, the IMF has already set a condition requiring Pakistan to achieve a primary surplus equivalent to 2 per cent of GDP, estimated at around Rs2.9 trillion, as part of ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts.
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb held a virtual meeting with provincial finance ministers and their economic teams, urging provinces to increase revenue generation measures to help meet the targeted primary surplus in the next fiscal year.
According to senior government sources, Pakistani authorities also held discussions with the IMF on the proposed 4.1 per cent growth target. While Pakistan presented this projection, the IMF has reportedly suggested a more conservative growth estimate of around 3.5 per cent.
Officials say the negotiations reflect ongoing efforts to balance economic growth with fiscal discipline, revenue mobilisation and inflation control under the broader IMF-supported reform programme.
Economists note that the projected inflation rate of 8.6 per cent indicates a gradual stabilisation trend compared to recent high inflationary periods, though risks remain due to global commodity prices, currency fluctuations and domestic fiscal pressures.
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The final targets are expected to be refined further during continued discussions between Pakistani authorities and the IMF ahead of the formal budget announcement.