Pakistan has achieved 13 out of 17 quantitative targets set under the IMF loan programme by December 2025, while two targets were not met and data for two others could not be provided to the IMF.
According to sources, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) could not share required data regarding income tax collection from retailers and the target of adding 500,000 new tax filers. The IMF staff has submitted its report to the Executive Board, on the basis of which approval of a $1.2 billion fourth tranche is expected in May 2026. This tranche is part of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and RSF programme.
The target for the State Bank’s net international reserves, set at negative $6.99 billion, was successfully achieved. Similarly, the ceiling for net domestic assets of the central bank at Rs15,016 billion and foreign currency swap and forward positions at negative $1.86 billion remained within limits. The government’s primary budget deficit also stayed within the prescribed target.
Total government guarantees were contained at Rs4,542 billion, while provincial tax revenues reached Rs568 billion, meeting the target. The State Bank did not extend borrowing to the government, and external payment arrears were kept under control. Agreed limits on tax refunds and power sector liabilities were also maintained.
On the other hand, a further 17 key economic targets have been set with a deadline of June 2026. The central bank’s net foreign exchange reserves target has been revised from negative $4.8 billion to negative $4.4 billion, with expectations of improvement to $2 billion in the next fiscal year.
For the current fiscal year, Pakistan has assured the IMF that the budget deficit will be contained at Rs3,156 billion, with a target to reduce it further to Rs2,978 billion by March 2027. The government has also committed to limiting guarantees to Rs5,800 billion and increasing income tax returns by one million by the end of the fiscal year, with an additional 750,000 returns targeted by March 2027.
Sources said that the IMF staff report submitted to the Executive Board reflects that Pakistan has largely met its quantitative targets, which is a positive signal for programme continuity. However, further efforts are required to improve tax collection and promote a documented economy.