In recent history, it is the first time that the highest-ranking official of a sovereign independent state has been taken out by a foreign country. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei lost his life to a targeted attack on the morning of February 28. Incoming missiles penetrated the building, which had a concrete bunker for protection. Along with Khamenei, some of his family members and high defence officials also died.
It is significant to know what has brought the conflict to this pass. Concluded on July 14, 2015, China, France, Germany, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, the United States (US) and the High Representative of the European Union reached an agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The pact was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). To this effect, on July 20, 2015, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2231 (2015) endorsing the JCPOA. However, on May 8, 2018, by calling the JCPOA “defective at its core”, US President Donald Trump (during his first presidency) announced the withdrawal of the US from the agreement. In its wake, on Iran, the US imposed heavy economic sanctions, which had been lifted under the JCPOA. However, other signatory countries decided to go ahead with the agreement.
If this were not enough, in December 2023, through its report, the International Atomic Energy Agency revealed that Iran had accelerated the production of uranium enrichment to reach near-weapons-grade level. As per the report, Iran had been producing around nine kg of uranium enriched to sixty per cent uranium-235 per month. The concern remained that sixty per cent enrichment of U-235 could be quickly transformed into weapons-grade levels of ninety per cent enrichment. Both the accumulation and enrichment of uranium stockpiles are considered to exceed the limits agreed by Iran in the JCPOA. The development might be Iran’s reaction to heavy economic sanctions, but this point coincided with reports that Iran had been developing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
China, a buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of anti-ballistic missile batteries (though secretly), has no history of interfering in foreign disputes, and on foreign lands.
Two factors threw oil on the proverbial fire. First, Iran was accused of secretly transferring Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 drones to Russia for use against Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. The supply of drones was considered in violation of restrictions. These were one-way attack drones called Kamikaze drones, which ravaged the Ukrainian army. This factor annoyed the countries of Western Europe. Second, in October 2023, an Iran-backed organisation called Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip. Rockets and artillery were used. Subsequently, Hezbollah also entered the scene to attack Israel from Lebanon. In totality, Iran’s role was seen as suspicious both in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
In June 2025, launched by the US, the Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, thereby rendering the ruling regime politically frail and socially fragile – if not entirely dysfunctional. Later on, when Iran entered into negotiations with the US, Iran revealed that it still had around 420 kg of 60 per cent-enriched uranium. Hence, the tension started lingering on. Iran was given an option to do away with the enrichment process altogether and accept the supply of nuclear fuel from a third source to run its nuclear reactors for the purpose of civilian use, such as producing electricity. Iran turned down this offer.
In February 2026, under Operation Epic Fury, aeroplanes of both the US and Israel denuded Iran’s airspace and launched surprise airstrikes on Iran’s multiple sites and different cities. Subsequently, Iran’s navy was also subjected to substantial damage. In return, Iran has been retaliating by using various kinds of missiles. US President Trump is asking for an unconditional surrender of Iran, if a regime change were not possible directly. The surrender would help the US effect a change in regime, replacing the current religious clergy.
To initiate the Epic Fury, air forces of the US and Israel resorted to a three-step approach: first, jam and destroy radars; second, engage anti-missile batteries; and third, use bunker-busting bombs. An addition has been of missile-laden drones with their low-cost version of Kamikaze drones. Whereas Operation Midnight Hammer was focused on erasing Iran’s nuclear capability, Operation Epic Fury is fixated on abolishing Iran’s ballistic capability.
A dimension of supremacy has come from the satellites, making one conclude that a modern war is necessary, and aerial combat is not possible without mastering the domain of satellite technology. The Global North had entered the satellite age before 1991 (the year ending the Cold War), whereas the entry of the Global South in this arena is recent, thereby leaving a chasm of scientific development in between. For countries relying merely on having nuclear weapons and stockpiling ballistic missiles, there is a moment of caution. Both these capabilities are of little value, if not emboldened by the satellite technology. Given the pace of progress, the next preference would be how to neutralise the enemy’s satellites before plunging into a war.
Currently, Iran is faced with the challenge of being alone. China, a buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of anti-ballistic missile batteries (though secretly), has no history of interfering in foreign disputes, and on foreign lands. Russia, a buyer of Iranian drones and a seller of anti-missile and other air defence systems, is engaged in its war with a European kid, Ukraine. Pakistan is already tied to Saudi Arabia through a mutual defence deal. Turkey feels threatened by any prospective Kurdish uprising (bordering Iran), challenging its sovereignty.
By using B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, if bunker buster bombs or even nuclear weapons are dropped from the height of 50,000 feet above the earth’s surface, no solution is available, no escape is possible. From the skies, pinpoint accuracy for hitting ground targets is possible now only with the help of satellite (and 3-D navigation or orientation) technology. Hired access to satellites matters little. Similarly, anti-missile technology serves a limited purpose. Certainly, the dynamics of war have changed.
The writer is a former diplomat and freelance columnist. qaisarrashid @yahoo.com