“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Little did Vladimir Ilyich Lenin know that more than a century after him, his words would continue to explain the shenanigans of the fast-changing world order. At dawn on Saturday, a coordinated wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes shattered a fragile status quo in the Middle East, unleashing a military offensive on Iranian soil that has already drawn retaliatory fire across the region and ignited fears of a deeper, protracted conflict. Earlier on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he had not made a final decision on whether to launch US strikes on Iran, but added he was “not happy” with the situation, and that military force, including regime change, remained an option. Meanwhile, breaking with its long-held practice of quiet, behind-the-scenes mediation, Oman’s foreign minister, Badr al-Busaidi, surfaced on Western platforms to lament that ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations he was mediating had been undermined and warned that the military escalation did not serve U.S. interests or global peace. Perhaps when the wall is dry, everyone will know the worth of water.
However, it is on the other side of Iran’s eastern frontier that the ripple effects are being most anxiously measured. Many in Islamabad are forced to see the ominous silhouette of a new alliance behind the flames, one that, they argue, emboldens Kabul’s intransigence and contributes to wider instability on the western flank. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent embrace of Israel is being viewed not as a routine diplomatic visit, but as the cementing of what critics in Pakistan call an anti-Muslim axis. It’s a term born of decades of distrust, now echoing louder amidst the Tehran fire.
Many in Islamabad are forced to see the ominous silhouette of a new alliance behind the flames, one that, they argue, emboldens Kabul’s intransigence and contributes to wider instability on the western flank.
Modi’s red-carpet welcome in Tel Aviv last week was more than symbolic. He stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu – a man isolated by much of the world for an ongoing Gaza war widely condemned as genocidal – and offered unequivocal support. “India stands with Israel firmly, with full conviction,” Modi declared, even using Hebrew in the Knesset to say “Am Yisrael chai” (The people of Israel live). In turn, Netanyahu lauded a wondrous friendship, noting that trade between the two nations has “doubled” in recent years. India is now Israel’s largest arms customer, with billions in drones, missiles and spyware flowing from Tel Aviv to New Delhi. Those weapons are not just showroom ornaments – security sources still recall how Israeli-made drones were deployed by India against them in a brief border war last year.
Many observers see a meeting of minds as much as markets. Modi’s ruling BJP and Netanyahu’s coalition share an ultranationalist DNA that glorifies majoritarian rule. “Hindutva and Zionism are joined at the hip in their common goals,” notes one analyst, each seeking to remake their state as an exclusive homeland. Under Modi, India has passed a citizenship law openly favouring non-Muslims, brutalised Kashmir with military lockdowns, and tolerated rising anti-Muslim violence. Under Netanyahu, Israel has entrenched apartheid-like policies against Palestinians and encouraged Jewish settler militias.
Their alignment is now explicit. Just days before Modi landed in Israel, Netanyahu touted a new “hexagon of alliances” with India at its centre – bringing together Israel, India, and pro-India Western allies to counter what he called the “radical Shia axis” (code for Iran and its friends) and an “emerging radical Sunni axis”.
This budding Israel-India nexus isn’t confined to confronting Iran or Palestinians; it has also played out on Pakistan’s doorstep in Afghanistan. Previously, both Modi’s India and Netanyahu’s Israel preferred the former US-backed Kabul government (which was hostile to Islamabad) and viewed the Taliban’s return in 2021 with deep suspicion. Indian intelligence had invested heavily in Afghanistan, and whispers of quiet Israeli assistance to those efforts have long swirled in Pakistani security circles. Now, as Pakistan grapples with a resurgent Taliban on its western border, it also faces a barrage of disinformation seemingly geared to inflame tensions.
Pakistan’s anxieties are heightened by the role of international media in shaping narratives. This week, Britain’s Sky News was caught peddling a false story that Afghanistan’s (non-existent) air force had bombed Pakistan – a report so implausible that Pakistani outrage forced the broadcaster to delete it. The incident was attributed to an Afghan-born anchor, Yalda Hakim, whose perceived bias against Pakistan has long been noted. Even supposedly impartial outlets can’t resist the zeitgeist: Islamabad’s officials have complained that some foreign media, including Al Jazeera, often display a subtle slant favouring Pakistan’s enemies. In a recent interview, the prime minister’s spokesman lambasted Al Jazeera for showing “empathy for the Taliban regime” in Kabul and “supporting narratives” of anti-Pakistan militants like the TTP and BLA – effectively accusing the Qatari network of buying into propaganda that paints Pakistan as the regional villain.
As Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to both the United States and the United Nations, noted, “Modi’s visit [to Israel] marks a decisive moment” – akin to a regional arms race kickoff. In response, Pakistan has tightened ranks with old friends like Turkey and forged a new strategic defence pact with Saudi Arabia, hoping to counter-balance the Indo-Israeli entente. There is talk of deeper ties with China and Russia, and urgent outreach to prevent a wider Muslim schism. Yet Pakistan is no passive victim. Even as it faces an “iron wall” of the nexus, it is pushing back with diplomacy and, if necessary, force, becoming the first country to condemn Israel’s strikes on Iran as “a violation of international law”.
Hard questions are being asked in Islamabad’s corridors of power: How can we better shield ourselves in this new great game? Should Pakistan accelerate its own defence procurements, perhaps turn to China for advanced systems to offset Israel’s tech edge for India? Can Muslim nations form a countervailing bloc that isn’t just reactive but proactively secures their interests? These are uncomfortable conversations, but they can no longer be avoided.
The writer is OpEd Editor (Daily Times) and can be reached at durenayab786 @gmail.com. She tweets @DureAkram.