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Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

Dr. Zia ul Haq is the author of the book 'Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan'. He has worked as the Director of the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies.

Expect the Unexpected in the Age of AI

Published on: January 12, 2026 1:17 AM

January 12, 2026 by Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

Talks about the next generation of technology, arms, and equipment are dying very quickly and being replaced by the next-next generation. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into emerging technologies has changed the competitive landscape and, by extension, the conflict.

The developments are taking place in all domains and all dimensions. Gone are the days when an aircraft, a tank, or a destroyer was at the centre of discussion by a particular country. Now, every major arms producer is busy doling out something new and different with every passing day. Be it in the domain of developing quantum computers or hypersonic missiles, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or modern drone systems, sensors or robotics, space or cyberspace, there is an unending race and competition to surprise others.

Likewise, Generative AI tools are making waves with their speed and ease of use, providing ready-made solutions in minutes. However, the question remains whether AI will introduce complexity and uncertainty during violent military engagements among the major stakeholders, or whether it will reduce the fog of war.

Why do I ask this question to tech wizards? It’s because the technology remains dependent on the input. High-speed processors and sensors can produce results quickly, but what if the input is unbiased and the outcome does not yield the desired results?

There is little doubt that AI promises several things to its users, particularly in the military domain. Also, there is evidence that army commanders across the board have begun using AI to gather information for their own use. At the same time, the system remains susceptible to disruptions, and if the kill chain is disrupted at a critical time, then it could become counterproductive. Therefore, an extremely cautious approach is needed for the deployment of AI on the battlefield; however, AI’s employment in robotics, drones, and UAVs appears relatively more prudent and efficient.

An extremely cautious approach is needed for the deployment of AI on the battlefield; however, AI’s employment in robotics, drones, and UAVs appears relatively more prudent and efficient.

Perhaps AI is best used for non-military purposes, as it would be much safer and more productive. For instance, AI’s use for drones deployed for search and rescue, agriculture, or weather monitoring can be extremely helpful to the administration and the people. Likewise, AI’s use in robotics for industrial production, healthcare systems, hospitality, and maybe hypermarkets can be a great help to people. Yes, there would be some job losses among humans, but speed, accuracy, and efficiency would greatly help the enterprise.

Hence, the need to spread the call to enhance AI literacy cannot be emphasised. The use of AI in daily business is expanding faster than anticipated. Algorithm-based working (ABW), which uses “automated, computer-driven instructions-known as algorithms-to direct, monitor, and evaluate work activities,” is increasingly being deployed by large and small organisations. This greatly helps in efficient workflows and predictive analysis. ABW not only collects data on people’s GPS locations, individual camera use, and customer feedback, but also processes it at a high speed and with great accuracy to deliver outputs that greatly help the organisation plan, staff, and manage.

Likewise, AI deployment in air ticket bookings has changed the way people travel. Each seat has a different price tag, thanks to ABW, which not only monitors individuals’ intent but also makes compelling suggestions. The same system is being deployed in the hospitality sector, with little doubt that it has greatly facilitated people in planning, organising, and executing their travels.

What is more worrisome is the dual use of AI. While AI’s increasing use in planning can be a blessing for the staff responsible for putting up a plan to the Commanders, its employment on the battlefield can have some profound implications. The opponent’s reaction may blur the lines between planning and execution, and, at that point, if AI is unable to lift the fog of war, it may become increasingly complex for the human to intervene in an autonomously executed campaign. Therefore, an expected situation may arise, and human intervention may become crucial to ensure the kill chain is not compromised.

Therefore, it is necessary to understand that the use of AI might make life easy. Still, without an acceptable level of AI literacy, its use on the battlefield can be dangerous and hence counterproductive. Also, let the wars be planned and executed by the humans who must control the machines used on the battlefield, so they may be held responsible for any mistakes they make in the process.

The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”

The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”

Filed Under: Op-Ed Tagged With: AI, Expect, Unexpected

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