These global developments have had a profound impact on South Asia’s security paradigm, influencing Indian leadership’s strategic behaviour and endangering regional stability. Four key outcomes stand out:
1. India as a Net Security Provider: In the Indo-Pacific balance of power struggle, India presented itself as a “Net Security Provider” to exploit geopolitical competition. The U.S. and its allies, seeking to contain China, accepted this narrative without scrutiny, giving India a false sense of hegemony.
2. Erosion of Multilateralism: The decline of multilateralism and the rise of issue-based partnerships encouraged ambitious states like India to dominate militarily.
3. Unchecked Militarisation: Western support allowed India to accumulate military hardware, running the fastest-growing nuclear and missile program in the region, disregarding arms control or strategic stability. Combined with India’s offensive doctrines, these emboldened coercive strategies against Pakistan.
4. Policy of Appeasement: The West’s appeasement made India believe its exceptionalism would go unquestioned. Western policymakers and media accepted Indian propaganda without scrutiny, ignoring human rights violations in Kashmir and minority persecution.
India’s strategic thinking has transformed alongside the BJP’s ideological roots in the RSS. The RSS founder, Savarkar, promoted “India for Hindus only,” advocating violence as a policy to create Maha Bharat (Greater India). This ideology is now the BJP’s political agenda.
Lasting peace in South Asia requires dialogue, political maturity, and mutual respect and equality.
India’s statecraft now employs terrorism and proxy violence, supporting militant groups like the TTP and BLA, and engaging in covert operations in Pakistan, Canada, the U.S., and Iran. The transformation of India from a rational, doctrine-bound state into a theological “Bharat” makes escalation a divine right rather than a last resort.
Deceit and disinformation have become core elements of Indian strategic culture, with extensive use of false narratives and propaganda. This fusion of extremist Hindu nationalism and delusional exceptionalism poses a grave threat to South Asian stability.
On 22 April 2025, at Pahalgam, an incident occurred which India immediately blamed on Pakistan without evidence. The Indian government, including PM Modi, quickly escalated tensions, suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. India’s actions followed a familiar script-hasty accusations, media hysteria, and unilateral aggression.
India launched an unprovoked military operation and coordinated terror attacks in Pakistan through proxies. Driven by political and military overconfidence, India miscalculated Pakistan’s resolve. Employing a new “Dynamic Response Strategy (DRS),” India sought coercion under a nuclear umbrella-a dangerous gamble.
Pakistan responded with restraint and responsibility, launching Operation Bunyan um Marsoos, a precise and proportional response targeting only military assets under its policy of Quid Pro Quo Plus. Pakistan’s conventional superiority and composure exposed India’s operational weaknesses and forced it to seek international mediation for a ceasefire.
The Pahalgam conflict redefined the strategic realities of South Asia:
1. India’s myth of conventional superiority and its role as a false “Net Security Provider” were exposed.
2. Pakistan demonstrated credible deterrence and operational excellence, reaffirming its status as a responsible nuclear power.
3. The Kashmir dispute was re-emphasised as the nuclear flashpoint of South Asia.
4. The Pakistan-China strategic partnership was further strengthened.
The conflict revealed that India attempted escalation both vertically (through advanced weapons) and horizontally (geographically) but failed to establish dominance. Pakistan’s conventional readiness and full-spectrum deterrence prevented further escalation.
The Pahalgam episode showed that escalation control between nuclear states is a dangerous illusion. Miscalculation or rhetoric can quickly lead to catastrophic consequences. There is no space for even a limited war between nuclear powers.
The fragility of regional crisis stability underscores the need for robust Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), crisis management mechanisms, and international mediation. Bilateralism alone has failed to resolve core disputes like Kashmir. The constructive role of global powers in achieving a ceasefire must be acknowledged and institutionalised for lasting peace.
Pakistan must continue its policy of Quid Pro Quo Plus, maintaining readiness to respond decisively to any aggression. It must also expose Indian state-sponsored terrorism through diplomatic and political channels.
As a responsible nuclear state, Pakistan should renew its offer for a strategic restraint regime and CBMs with India-if sanity prevails in New Delhi. Pakistan’s role as a regional stabiliser, backed by strong armed forces and a resilient nation, remains vital.
Lasting peace in South Asia requires dialogue, political maturity, and mutual respect and equality. The resolution of all disputes, especially Kashmir, in accordance with UNSC resolutions, must be prioritised.
Finally, saner voices within India and beyond must ensure that Prime Minister Modi does not hold hostage the prosperity of over two billion South Asians to Hindutva-driven extremism.
(Concluded)
The writer is Retired General (Pakistan Army)