LONDON: Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key OPEC+ members — collectively known as the “Voluntary Eight” (V8) — are expected to agree on a crude output increase when they meet virtually on Sunday, as falling prices and global oversupply pressure producers to adjust their strategy.
Oil prices have plunged to below $65 a barrel, marking an eight percent decline over the week amid speculation that the V8 may raise production by up to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The meeting comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dismissed reports of a massive output surge as “wholly inaccurate and misleading,” urging the media to avoid fuelling market speculation.
Analysts Split Over Size of Increase
Initial projections had indicated a modest 137,000 bpd hike for November, mirroring October’s adjustment. However, analysts now warn that OPEC+ could surprise markets with a larger and faster production boost, as seen in recent months.
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Since April, the eight-member bloc — which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — has ramped up production by 2.5 million bpd (mbpd) in total, signalling a major policy shift after years of supply cuts aimed at stabilising prices.
Demand Stagnant, Supply Rising
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global demand growth for crude will remain flat at around 700,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026, even as output from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina hits record highs.
In contrast, OPEC maintains a more bullish outlook, projecting demand growth of 1.3 mbpd in 2025 and 1.4 mbpd in 2026. But market analysts like Tamas Varga of PVM warn that signs of a “long-awaited glut” are now unmistakable, suggesting oil markets could soon face significant oversupply.
Russia’s Reluctance
While Riyadh remains committed to stabilising markets, Russia — OPEC+’s second-largest producer — could resist a sharp increase in quotas. “Russia depends on high prices to fund its war machine,” noted Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, adding that sanctions have already limited Moscow’s production capacity. According to Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi, Russia’s output currently stands at 9.25 mbpd, with a maximum potential of 9.45 mbpd, compared to 10 mbpd before the Ukraine war.
Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have intensified since August, forcing Moscow to divert crude exports abroad as domestic processing capacity shrinks, explained Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management. The outcome of Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting could therefore define the trajectory of oil prices heading into the winter months — balancing between global oversupply risks and geopolitical constraints.