The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma), Pakistan’s largest export body, has raised concerns over the government’s plan to expand generation capacity by 50 percent to 64,000 megawatts between 2025 and 2035, calling the targets unrealistic and likely to lock in high-cost power. In detailed objections submitted to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Aptma questioned the demand-forecasting methodology used in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP 2025-35), warning that it overestimates grid electricity demand and undermines the credibility of the entire plan.
Aptma argued that the IGCEP relies on a simplistic statistical model linking grid consumption to GDP and population growth without accounting for the growing use of alternatives such as captive power, rooftop solar, gas-fired boilers, and electric stoves. Ignoring these non-grid sources, the association said, inflates projected demand and encourages excessive generation additions, resulting in higher capacity payments, stranded assets, and financial stress in the power sector.
The association highlighted that this bias has long-term implications, including inflated tariffs and over-investment, while consumer demand stagnates in certain sectors. Industrial electricity consumption in FY2025 declined by around 4 percent, and agricultural consumption fell sharply as farmers turned to diesel and solar alternatives. Despite this, the IGCEP projects nearly 20,000 MW of new capacity, which Aptma says will exacerbate idle plants, steep fixed costs, and rising circular debt.
Aptma urged authorities to prioritize affordability in energy planning, recommending that no new generation be approved until capacity payments are reduced below Rs5 per unit. The association emphasized that the current approach driven by megawatt targets, donor pressures, and short-term goals risks unsustainable costs for consumers and the wider economy.