The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.6% for the fiscal year 2025-26, falling short of the government’s ambitious target of 4.2%. The projection was published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update, released on July 29, 2025, highlighting continued economic challenges for the country.
At the same time, the IMF revised Pakistan’s GDP growth for FY2024-25 to 2.7%, a slight increase of 0.1% from earlier estimates. The Finance Division had earlier reported a real GDP growth of 2.68% for FY25, which aligns closely with the IMF’s figures.
Other global financial institutions also remain cautious. The World Bank expects 3.1% growth for Pakistan in FY26, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects 3%. However, ADB slightly revised its FY25 estimate upward to 2.7% from 2.5%, suggesting a modest recovery.
On a global scale, the IMF forecasted 3% growth in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, citing improved financial conditions, a weaker US dollar, and fewer trade restrictions as reasons for optimism. Inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% globally in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although it may stay above target in the United States.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Finance Ministry projects July inflation at 3.5–4.5%, as price pressures ease slightly. The government is hopeful that lower inflation and gradual growth will support economic stability, but the IMF has warned that global risks and uncertainty remain high, which could impact recovery efforts.